Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 2

Paris FC vs Nice

· Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino· Referee Jeremy Stinat

Full time3 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Paris FC to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Paris FCDrawNice

Why this pick: Paris FC vs Nice

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris FC 10, Nice 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris FCNice
1.88 xG per 90 1.16
1.80 npxG per 90 1.08
15.6 PPDA 15.8
6.1 Deep completions per 90 5.4
1.80 xPTS per 90 1.07

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris FC vs Nice: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParis FCDrawNice
Model59%21%19%
Market45%29%27%
Published48%27%25%
Edge+14%-7%-7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Paris FC below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paris FC vs Nice odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 2.10Now 2.10 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paris FC2.102.10+0.00
Draw3.353.30-0.05
Nice3.103.55+0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris FC and Nice expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.15Paris FC
1.10Nice
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (Paris FC / Nice)
1.19 / 0.92
Defence rating (Paris FC / Nice)
0.96 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris FC vs Nice score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 4.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1 8.5% 9.9% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.9% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 3 6.1% 6.7% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 5.0% 5.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Paris FC goals. Columns: Nice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris FC vs Nice goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris FC vs Nice

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paris FC48%2.06
Draw27%3.74
Nice25%4.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.71
No41%2.41
Double chance1X (Paris FC or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Nice)52%1.94
Handicap -1Paris FC win by 2+36%2.79
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paris FC and Nice recent form

Paris FC 3W 1D 2L
Nice 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Paris FC absences

  • E. Mbemba inactive
  • J. Ikone hamstring injury
  • L. Koleosho injury
  • N. Sangui injury

Nice absences

  • A. Abdi surgery
  • L. Abergel knee injury
  • M. Bombito leg injury
  • M. Sanson surgery

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Paris FC vs Nice head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 1 · draws 1 · Nice 0.

Paris FCDrawsNice
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-01Paris FC1-0NiceLigue 1
2025-09-28Nice1-1Paris FCLigue 1

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match