Why this pick: Rennes vs Marseille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rennes 10, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rennes vs Marseille: model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 20% | 38% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 29% |
| Published | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Edge | -6% | -4% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rennes vs Marseille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 2.50 | 2.01 | -0.49 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 4.00 | +0.30 |
| Marseille | 2.35 | 3.35 | +1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rennes and Marseille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.56
- Attack rating (Rennes / Marseille)
- 1.34 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Rennes / Marseille)
- 1.27 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rennes vs Marseille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rennes vs Marseille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rennes vs Marseille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Marseille | 31% | 3.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rennes or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Marseille) | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win by 2+ | 25% | 3.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rennes and Marseille recent form
Rennes
3W 1D 2L
Marseille
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rennes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Marseille away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Rennes at home only, Marseille away only.
Injuries & availability
Rennes absences
-
A. Nordin
inactive
-
D. Cisse
inactive
-
G. Oliveira
inactive
Marseille absences
-
A. Koum Mbondo
inactive
-
G. Kondogbia
injury
-
T. Nnadi
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Rennes lineup · 4-3-3
- 30 B. Samba
- 18 M. Nagida
- 24 A. Rouault
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 21 V. Rongier
- 45 M. Camara
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 9 E. Lepaul
- 10 L. Blas
Bench: Mousa Tamari, Eliezer Mayenda, B. Reynolds, N. Lemaître, S. Szymański, B. Dia, Q. Merlin, A. Ait Boudlal, H. Do Marcolino
Marseille lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. de Lange
- 33 Emerson
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 4 C. Egan-Riley
- 22 T. Weah
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 Igor Paixão
- 7 A. Gomes
- 77 A. Harit
- 9 A. Gouiri
Bench: N. Maupay, D. Cornelius, B. Meité, U. Garcia, F. Moumbagna, T. Mmadi, K. Abdallah, T. Vermot
Rennes vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rennes 2 · draws 1 · Marseille 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Marseille | 3-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Marseille | 3-0 | Rennes | Coupe de France |
| 2025-08-15 | Rennes | 1-0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Marseille | 4-2 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Rennes | 1-2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Rennes | 2-0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-21 | Rennes | 1-1 | Marseille | Coupe de France |
| 2023-12-03 | Marseille | 2-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-03-05 | Rennes | 0-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-20 | Marseille | 1-0 | Rennes | Coupe de France |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Strasbourg vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lorient vs Toulouse 2026-09-12
- Auxerre v Nice — match page 2026-09-12
- Le Havre vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Paris FC vs Lyon 2026-09-12
- Lille v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-13
- Le Mans vs Lens — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Brest vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Rennes, previous: Angers vs Rennes prediction
- Rennes, next: Lyon vs Rennes prediction
- Marseille, previous: Marseille – Paris FC, 2026-09-06
- Marseille, next: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: odds and pick