Why this pick: Le Havre vs Brest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Brest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Havre vs Brest: model vs market
| Source | Le Havre | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | -2% | -6% | +7% |
- The market prices Brest below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Le Havre vs Brest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brest, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 2.40 | 2.75 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.32 | +0.07 |
| Brest | 2.70 | 2.63 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Havre and Brest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Le Havre / Brest)
- 0.88 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Le Havre / Brest)
- 1.22 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Havre vs Brest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Brest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Havre vs Brest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Havre vs Brest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 34% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Brest | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Havre or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Brest) | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win by 2+ | 23% | 4.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Havre and Brest recent form
Le Havre
1W 3D 2L
Brest
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Havre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Brest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Havre at home only, Brest away only.
Injuries & availability
Le Havre absences
-
A. Toure
knee injury
-
F. Mambimbi
injury
-
P. Argney
injury
-
S. Zagadou
injury
Brest absences
-
B. Chardonnet
calf injury
-
J. Bourgault
knee injury
-
M. Diambou
ankle injury
-
R. Cagnon
shoulder injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Le Havre vs Brest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Le Havre 2 · draws 2 · Brest 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Brest | 2-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Le Havre | 1-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-26 | Le Havre | 0-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Brest | 2-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Brest | 1-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-20 | Le Havre | 1-2 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2019-02-01 | Le Havre | 1-1 | Brest | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-08-28 | Le Havre | 3-3 | Brest | Coupe de la Ligue |
| 2018-08-24 | Brest | 1-0 | Le Havre | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-05-15 | Le Havre | 2-0 | Brest | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Toulouse v Lille — match page 2026-09-03
- Lyon vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco 2026-09-04
- Lens v Lorient — match page 2026-09-05
- Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-06
- Angers vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Le Havre, next: Le Havre v Angers analysis
- Brest, next: Brest v Paris Saint Germain analysis