Nice VS Le Mans Football Prediction 05/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Nice vs Le Mans

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Le Mans 2). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

NiceLe Mans

1.06 xG per 90 1.75

0.98 npxG per 90 1.37

16.2 PPDA 12.1

5.5 Deep completions per 90 4.5

0.89 xPTS per 90 0.55

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Nice vs Le Mans: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nice	Draw	Le Mans
Model	24%	23%	54%
Market	55%	25%	20%
Published	47%	25%	29%
Edge	-31%	-2%	+33%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nice vs Le Mans odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nice, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.68Now 1.77 +0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Nice	1.68	1.77	+0.09
Draw	3.70	3.83	+0.13
Le Mans	4.30	4.72	+0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nice and Le Mans expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Nice

1.89Le Mans

Total expected goals: 3.14
Attack rating (Nice / Le Mans): 0.88 / 1.23
Defence rating (Nice / Le Mans): 1.24 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nice vs Le Mans score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 8.4% 8.2% 5.2% 3.8% 1 5.2% 10.6% 9.8% 6.2% 4.5% 2 3.2% 6.1% 5.8% 3.7% 2.7% 3 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 1.5% 1.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Le Mans goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nice vs Le Mans goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nice vs Le Mans

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nice	47%	2.14
	Draw	25%	4.07
	Le Mans	29%	3.49
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.68
	Under 2.5	40%	2.47
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.68
	No	41%	2.46
Double chance	1X (Nice or draw)	71%	1.40
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Le Mans)	53%	1.88
Handicap -1	Nice win by 2+	9%	10.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	14%	—