Why this pick: Monaco vs Marseille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Monaco 10, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Monaco vs Marseille: model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 37% |
| Published | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | +2% | -4% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.79.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Monaco vs Marseille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 10 snapshots since 2026-08-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.58 | 2.50 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.70 | -0.04 |
| Marseille | 2.54 | 2.58 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monaco and Marseille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.98
- Attack rating (Monaco / Marseille)
- 1.36 / 1.41
- Defence rating (Monaco / Marseille)
- 1.02 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monaco vs Marseille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monaco goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monaco vs Marseille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monaco vs Marseille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Marseille | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monaco or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Marseille) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Monaco and Marseille recent form
Monaco
4W 0D 2L
Marseille
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Monaco absences
-
A. Fati
calf injury
-
F. Balogun
injury
-
M. Salisu
knee injury
-
T. Minamino
knee injury
Marseille absences
-
I. Paixao
muscle injury
-
L. Balerdi
calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Monaco vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Monaco 3 · draws 1 · Marseille 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monaco | 2-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Marseille | 1-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Monaco | 3-0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Marseille | 2-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-27 | Marseille | 2-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-30 | Monaco | 3-2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Paris FC v Nice — match page 2026-08-30
- Rennes vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Monaco, next: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: odds and pick
- Marseille, next: Marseille – Paris FC, 2026-09-06