Why this pick: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris Saint Germain 10, Monaco 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: model vs market
| Source | Paris Saint Germain | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Market | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Published | 63% | 19% | 18% |
| Edge | -28% | +6% | +22% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.35 | 1.35 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 5.50 | +0.20 |
| Monaco | 6.00 | 7.50 | +1.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Paris Saint Germain and Monaco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.58
- Attack rating (Paris Saint Germain / Monaco)
- 1.21 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Paris Saint Germain / Monaco)
- 1.01 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris Saint Germain | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.34 | |
| Monaco | 18% | 5.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Paris Saint Germain or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Monaco) | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Paris Saint Germain and Monaco recent form
Paris Saint Germain
2W 3D 1L
Monaco
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monaco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain at home only, Monaco away only.
Injuries & availability
Paris Saint Germain absences
-
L. Digne
inactive
-
N. Mendes
suspended
Monaco absences
-
A. Fati
calf injury
-
E. Diop
injury
-
F. Balogun
injury
-
M. Salisu
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 5 · draws 2 · Monaco 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-3 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Paris Saint Germain | 2-2 | Monaco | UEFA Champions League |
| 2026-02-17 | Monaco | 2-3 | Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| 2025-11-29 | Monaco | 1-0 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-07 | Paris Saint Germain | 4-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-0 | Monaco | Trophée des Champions |
| 2024-12-18 | Monaco | 2-4 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-01 | Monaco | 0-0 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-24 | Paris Saint Germain | 5-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-02-11 | Monaco | 3-1 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Toulouse v Lille — match page 2026-09-03
- Lyon vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Lens v Lorient — match page 2026-09-05
- Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Le Havre vs Brest 2026-09-05
- Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-06
- Angers vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Paris Saint Germain, next: Brest v Paris Saint Germain analysis
- Monaco, previous: Monaco vs Marseille prediction
- Monaco, next: Strasbourg vs Monaco: odds and pick