Why this pick: Lyon vs Auxerre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lyon vs Auxerre: model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Published | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| Edge | -12% | +2% | +10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.29.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lyon vs Auxerre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.48 | 1.43 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.75 | +0.45 |
| Auxerre | 5.30 | 7.00 | +1.70 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lyon and Auxerre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Lyon / Auxerre)
- 1.04 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Lyon / Auxerre)
- 1.08 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lyon vs Auxerre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lyon vs Auxerre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lyon vs Auxerre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.88 | |
| Auxerre | 16% | 6.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lyon or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Auxerre) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lyon and Auxerre recent form
Lyon
2W 2D 2L
Auxerre
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lyon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Auxerre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 5.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Lyon at home only, Auxerre away only.
Injuries & availability
Lyon absences
-
A. Gomes Rodriguez
inactive
-
A. Hamdani
inactive
-
J. Duranville
muscle injury
-
K. Nakamura
coach's decision
-
M. Ouedraogo
inactive
-
M. de Carvalho
inactive
-
N. Kamara
inactive
-
S. Kango
inactive
Auxerre absences
-
A. Diousse
knee injury
-
A. Tuanzebe
lacking match fitness
-
B. Okoh
knee injury
-
F. Oppegard
illness
-
F. Sierralta
injury
-
M. Senaya
injury
-
S. Fofana
groin injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lyon vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lyon 5 · draws 3 · Auxerre 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Lyon | 3-2 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Auxerre | 0-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Auxerre | 1-3 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Lyon | 2-2 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-02-17 | Auxerre | 2-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Lyon | 2-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2012-04-07 | Lyon | 2-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2011-11-27 | Auxerre | 0-3 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2011-05-11 | Auxerre | 4-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2010-12-22 | Lyon | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Toulouse v Lille — match page 2026-09-03
- Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco 2026-09-04
- Lens v Lorient — match page 2026-09-05
- Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Le Havre vs Brest 2026-09-05
- Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-06
- Angers vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Lyon, next: Paris FC vs Lyon: odds and pick
- Auxerre, next: Auxerre – Nice, 2026-09-12