Why this pick: Lens vs Lorient
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lens 10, Lorient 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lens vs Lorient: model vs market
| Source | Lens | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Published | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | +8% | -6% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.96 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lens below the model: +8.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lens vs Lorient odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lens, 12 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 1.47 | 1.54 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.45 | -0.25 |
| Lorient | 6.40 | 6.00 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lens and Lorient expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.17
- Attack rating (Lens / Lorient)
- 1.74 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Lens / Lorient)
- 0.96 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lens vs Lorient score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Lorient goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lens vs Lorient goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lens vs Lorient
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Lorient | 15% | 6.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lens or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Lorient) | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 50% | 1.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lens and Lorient recent form
Lens
4W 0D 2L
Lorient
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lens at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 5.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Lorient away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Lens at home only, Lorient away only.
Injuries & availability
Lens absences
-
J. Chavez
thigh injury
-
M. Nawrocki
injury
-
S. Abdulhamid
contusion
-
S. Baidoo
knee injury
Lorient absences
-
B. Fadiga
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lens vs Lorient head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lens 5 · draws 3 · Lorient 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Lorient | 2-1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Lens | 3-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-05-03 | Lens | 2-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Lorient | 0-0 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-05-21 | Lorient | 1-3 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-02-09 | Lorient | 1-1 | Lens | Coupe de France |
| 2022-08-31 | Lens | 5-2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-06 | Lorient | 2-0 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-08-29 | Lens | 2-2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-04-11 | Lens | 4-1 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Toulouse v Lille — match page 2026-09-03
- Lyon vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco 2026-09-04
- Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Le Havre vs Brest 2026-09-05
- Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-06
- Angers vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Lens, next: Le Mans – Lens, 2026-09-13
- Lorient, next: Lorient vs Toulouse prediction