Updated

La Liga · Matchday 5

Villarreal vs Real Betis

· Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal· Referee Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain

Full time1 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Villarreal to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VillarrealDrawReal Betis

Why this pick: Villarreal vs Real Betis

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Real Betis 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VillarrealReal Betis
1.92 xG per 90 1.55
1.59 npxG per 90 1.47
13.1 PPDA 15.4
11.4 Deep completions per 90 7.8
1.63 xPTS per 90 1.22

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Villarreal vs Real Betis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVillarrealDrawReal Betis
Model68%17%15%
Market49%25%27%
Published54%23%24%
Edge+20%-8%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 1.54.
  • The market prices Villarreal below the model: +19.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Villarreal vs Real Betis odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 51 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.05Now 1.97 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Villarreal2.051.97-0.08
Draw3.603.90+0.30
Real Betis3.403.60+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Villarreal and Real Betis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.98Villarreal
1.54Real Betis
Total expected goals
4.52
Attack rating (Villarreal / Real Betis)
1.40 / 1.14
Defence rating (Villarreal / Real Betis)
1.18 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Villarreal vs Real Betis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 1 2.0% 5.4% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 2 4.6% 7.1% 5.4% 2.8% 1.5% 3 4.8% 7.4% 5.7% 2.9% 1.6% 4+ 8.2% 12.6% 9.7% 5.0% 2.7%

Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Real Betis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Villarreal vs Real Betis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
76%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Villarreal vs Real Betis

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Villarreal54%1.86
Draw23%4.42
Real Betis24%4.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.18
Under 2.516%6.44
Both teams to scoreYes76%1.32
No24%4.17
Double chance1X (Villarreal or draw)76%1.31
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Real Betis)46%2.16
Handicap -1Villarreal win by 2+51%1.98
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Villarreal and Real Betis recent form

Villarreal 1W 2D 3L
Real Betis 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Villarreal at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Real Betis away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Real Betis away only.

Injuries & availability

Villarreal absences

  • J. Foyth achilles tendon injury

Real Betis absences

  • A. Ruibal knee injury
  • D. Llorente broken nose
  • J. Morante coach's decision

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Villarreal lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 25 P. Gulácsi
  2. 20 Carlos Romero
  3. 12 Renato Veiga
  4. 6 Pau Navarro
  5. 15 S. Mouriño
  6. 17 T. Buchanan
  7. 18 P. Gueye
  8. 14 Santi Comesaña
  9. 19 N. Pépé
  10. 9 G. Mikautadze
  11. 7 Gerard Moreno

Bench: Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Freeman, A. Diatta, Alberto Moleiro, Ilias Akhomach, Rubén Gómez, C. Macia, T. Oluwaseyi, Ayoze Pérez, Sergi Cardona, N. Saliba

Real Betis lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Álvaro Vallés
  2. 11 Fran García
  3. 4 Natan
  4. 5 Marc Bartra
  5. 2 Héctor Bellerín
  6. 21 Marc Roca
  7. 8 Pablo Fornals
  8. 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  9. 22 Isco
  10. 17 Rodrigo Riquelme
  11. 9 C. Hernández

Bench: F. Bernal, Antony, Ángel Ortiz, Iker Losada, Álvaro Fidalgo, V. Gómez, N. Deossa, T. Parrott, G. Lo Celso, Junior Firpo, Dani Ceballos, Manu González

Villarreal vs Real Betis head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Villarreal 4 · draws 2 · Real Betis 4.

VillarrealDrawsReal Betis
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Real Betis2-0VillarrealLa Liga
2025-10-18Villarreal2-2Real BetisLa Liga
2025-04-13Real Betis1-2VillarrealLa Liga
2024-12-15Villarreal1-2Real BetisLa Liga
2024-03-10Real Betis2-3VillarrealLa Liga
2023-08-13Villarreal1-2Real BetisLa Liga
2023-03-12Villarreal1-1Real BetisLa Liga
2022-09-11Real Betis1-0VillarrealLa Liga
2022-02-06Real Betis0-2VillarrealLa Liga
2021-10-03Villarreal2-0Real BetisLa Liga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match