Osasuna VS Espanyol Football Prediction 12/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Osasuna vs Espanyol

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Espanyol 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

OsasunaEspanyol

1.51 xG per 90 1.21

1.29 npxG per 90 1.21

13.4 PPDA 13.3

3.9 Deep completions per 90 4.6

1.65 xPTS per 90 1.23

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Osasuna vs Espanyol: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Osasuna	Draw	Espanyol
Model	61%	24%	15%
Market	44%	29%	27%
Published	48%	28%	24%
Edge	+17%	-5%	-12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.96.
The market prices Osasuna below the model: +16.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Osasuna vs Espanyol odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 45 snapshots since 2026-08-31.

Opened 1.84Now 2.19 +0.35

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Osasuna	1.84	2.19	+0.35
Draw	3.45	3.25	-0.20
Espanyol	4.00	3.56	-0.44

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Osasuna and Espanyol expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Osasuna

0.96Espanyol

Total expected goals: 2.92
Attack rating (Osasuna / Espanyol): 1.08 / 0.95
Defence rating (Osasuna / Espanyol): 0.90 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Osasuna vs Espanyol score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 2.8% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1 8.1% 11.6% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.3% 9.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 3 7.1% 6.8% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 5.8% 5.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Osasuna vs Espanyol goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Osasuna vs Espanyol

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Osasuna	48%	2.09
	Draw	28%	3.55
	Espanyol	24%	4.18
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.72
	Under 2.5	42%	2.39
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.79
	No	44%	2.27
Double chance	1X (Osasuna or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Espanyol)	52%	1.92
Handicap -1	Osasuna win by 2+	39%	2.59
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Osasuna and Espanyol recent form

Osasuna 2W 1D 3L

Espanyol 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Osasuna at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-1-0
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 2

Espanyol away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Espanyol away only.

Injuries & availability

Osasuna absences

A. Oroz muscle injury
J. Herrando muscle injury
M. Gomez hamstring injury
V. Rosier hamstring injury

Espanyol absences

A. Gorosabel injury
J. Puado knee injury
K. Garcia hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Osasuna vs Espanyol head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Osasuna 4 · draws 4 · Espanyol 2.

40% 40% 20%

OsasunaDrawsEspanyol

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-17	Osasuna	1-2	Espanyol	La Liga
2025-08-31	Espanyol	1-0	Osasuna	La Liga
2025-05-18	Osasuna	2-0	Espanyol	La Liga
2024-12-14	Espanyol	0-0	Osasuna	La Liga
2023-02-04	Espanyol	1-1	Osasuna	La Liga
2022-10-20	Osasuna	1-0	Espanyol	La Liga
2022-05-08	Espanyol	1-1	Osasuna	La Liga
2021-08-14	Osasuna	0-0	Espanyol	La Liga
2021-01-17	Espanyol	0-2	Osasuna	Copa del Rey
2020-03-08	Osasuna	1-0	Espanyol	La Liga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Sevilla vs Valencia 2026-09-11
Racing Santander vs Alaves 2026-09-12
Athletic Club v Elche — match page 2026-09-12
Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-09-12
Celta Vigo vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Levante vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-13
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

Osasuna, previous: Alaves v Osasuna analysis
Osasuna, next: Atletico Madrid – Osasuna, 2026-09-16
Espanyol, previous: Espanyol vs Sevilla: odds and pick
Espanyol, next: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction