Updated

La Liga · Matchday 5

Athletic Club vs Elche

· San Mamés, Bilbao· Referee Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain

Full time1 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Athletic Club to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Athletic ClubDrawElche

Why this pick: Athletic Club vs Elche

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Athletic Club 10, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Athletic ClubElche
1.47 xG per 90 1.26
1.47 npxG per 90 1.19
14.6 PPDA 9.0
5.9 Deep completions per 90 4.2
1.47 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Athletic Club vs Elche: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAthletic ClubDrawElche
Model54%25%21%
Market67%20%13%
Published64%21%15%
Edge-13%+5%+8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.25.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Athletic Club vs Elche odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.61Now 1.42 -0.19
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Athletic Club1.611.42-0.19
Draw3.954.85+0.90
Elche5.607.50+1.90

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Athletic Club and Elche expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.96Athletic Club
1.25Elche
Total expected goals
3.21
Attack rating (Athletic Club / Elche)
1.08 / 1.03
Defence rating (Athletic Club / Elche)
1.07 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Athletic Club vs Elche score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 2.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 1 5.6% 11.3% 5.9% 2.4% 1.0% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.3% 6.7% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.4% 5.5% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6%

Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Athletic Club vs Elche goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Athletic Club vs Elche

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Athletic Club64%1.56
Draw21%4.75
Elche15%6.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.80
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.79
Double chance1X (Athletic Club or draw)85%1.17
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Elche)36%2.79
Handicap -1Athletic Club win by 2+34%2.97
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Athletic Club and Elche recent form

Athletic Club 2W 1D 3L
Elche 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Athletic Club at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Elche away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Elche away only.

Injuries & availability

Athletic Club absences

  • D. Vivian hamstring injury
  • G. Guruzeta hamstring injury
  • P. Canales muscle injury
  • U. Egiluz knee injury

Elche absences

  • Y. Santiago knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Athletic Club vs Elche head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Athletic Club 5 · draws 3 · Elche 2.

Athletic ClubDrawsElche
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-20Athletic Club2-1ElcheLa Liga
2025-10-19Elche0-0Athletic ClubLa Liga
2023-05-28Athletic Club0-1ElcheLa Liga
2022-09-11Elche1-4Athletic ClubLa Liga
2022-04-03Athletic Club2-1ElcheLa Liga
2021-08-16Elche0-0Athletic ClubLa Liga
2021-05-22Elche2-0Athletic ClubLa Liga
2021-01-03Athletic Club1-0ElcheLa Liga
2020-01-22Elche1-1Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
2015-05-17Elche2-3Athletic ClubLa Liga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match