Why this pick: Malaga vs Villarreal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Malaga 5, Villarreal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Malaga vs Villarreal: model vs market
| Source | Malaga | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | +21% | +2% | -22% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Malaga vs Villarreal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 3.40 | 3.75 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.84 | +0.34 |
| Villarreal | 1.82 | 1.94 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Malaga and Villarreal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Malaga / Villarreal)
- 0.82 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Malaga / Villarreal)
- 0.90 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malaga vs Villarreal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Villarreal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malaga vs Villarreal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malaga vs Villarreal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 31% | 3.26 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Villarreal | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malaga or draw) | 56% | 1.78 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Villarreal) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 13% | 7.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Malaga and Villarreal recent form
Malaga
1W 3D 2L
Villarreal
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malaga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Villarreal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malaga at home only, Villarreal away only.
Injuries & availability
Malaga absences
-
A. Aznou
muscle injury
-
A. Ochoa
knee injury
-
D. Murillo
injury
-
F. Calero
ribs injury
-
J. Cajuste
injury
-
J. Lobete
knee injury
-
M. Diarra
calf injury
Villarreal absences
-
J. Foyth
achilles tendon injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Malaga lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Alfonso Herrero
- 12 José Salinas
- 4 Einar Galilea
- 15 Ángel Recio
- 3 Puga
- 23 Izan Merino
- 19 Juan Cruz
- 18 Pablo Martínez
- 8 Carlos Dotor
- 10 David Larrubia
- 9 Chupe
Bench: Álex Pastor, Ramón Enríquez, Joaquín Muñoz, Carlos López, Rafa Rodríguez, Eneko Jauregi, Adrián Niño Heredia, Dani Lorenzo, Juan Berrocal, Rafita, J. Fernandez
Villarreal lineup · 4-4-2
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 23 Sergi Cardona
- 12 Renato Veiga
- 6 Pau Navarro
- 3 A. Freeman
- 10 Alberto Moleiro
- 24 N. Saliba
- 14 Santi Comesaña
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 22 Ayoze Pérez
- 11 Ilias Akhomach
Bench: Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Diatta, Gerard Moreno, G. Mikautadze, Rubén Gómez, S. Mouriño, C. Macia, P. Gueye, N. Pépé, Carlos Romero, T. Oluwaseyi
Malaga vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Malaga 2 · draws 3 · Villarreal 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-01 | Malaga | 1-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2017-11-05 | Villarreal | 2-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2017-02-12 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2016-09-10 | Malaga | 0-2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2016-02-13 | Villarreal | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2015-09-23 | Malaga | 0-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2015-05-17 | Villarreal | 2-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2015-01-10 | Malaga | 1-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2014-04-21 | Malaga | 2-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2013-11-29 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-03
- Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-15
- Alaves vs Valencia 2026-09-15
- Elche v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-15
- Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-16
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla 2026-09-16
- Barcelona vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-16
- Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-09-17
Before and after this match
- Malaga, previous: Celta Vigo v Malaga analysis
- Malaga, next: Getafe v Malaga analysis
- Villarreal, previous: Villarreal v Real Betis analysis
- Villarreal, next: Villarreal v Levante analysis