Updated

La Liga · Matchday 4

Real Betis vs Real Madrid

· Estadio de la Cartuja, Seville· Referee Alejandro Hernandez, Spain

Full time1 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Real Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real BetisDrawReal Madrid

Why this pick: Real Betis vs Real Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Betis 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real BetisReal Madrid
1.53 xG per 90 1.91
1.46 npxG per 90 1.91
14.5 PPDA 13.4
7.7 Deep completions per 90 11.3
1.31 xPTS per 90 1.86

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal BetisDrawReal Madrid
Model31%25%44%
Market15%18%67%
Published19%20%61%
Edge+16%+7%-23%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.64Now 1.44 -0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Betis4.706.41+1.71
Draw4.255.25+1.00
Real Madrid1.641.44-0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Betis and Real Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Real Betis
1.96Real Madrid
Total expected goals
3.51
Attack rating (Real Betis / Real Madrid)
1.08 / 1.43
Defence rating (Real Betis / Real Madrid)
1.22 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.5% 3.7% 5.3% 3.5% 2.7% 1 2.8% 10.6% 8.7% 5.6% 4.3% 2 3.7% 7.2% 7.0% 4.6% 3.5% 3 2.0% 3.9% 3.8% 2.5% 1.9% 4+ 1.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1%

Rows: Real Betis goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Betis vs Real Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Betis19%5.29
Draw20%4.99
Real Madrid61%1.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.44
Under 2.531%3.27
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.42
Double chance1X (Real Betis or draw)39%2.57
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or Real Madrid)81%1.23
Handicap -1Real Madrid win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Betis and Real Madrid recent form

Real Betis 4W 0D 2L
Real Madrid 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Betis at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Real Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Betis at home only, Real Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Betis absences

  • A. Ezzalzouli illness
  • A. Ruibal knee injury
  • D. Ceballos coach's decision
  • D. Conde shoulder injury
  • G. Lo Celso muscle injury

Real Madrid absences

  • A. Tchouameni muscle injury
  • Eder Militao hamstring injury
  • Endrick muscle injury
  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • R. Asencio muscle injury
  • Rodrygo knee injury
  • T. Pitarch knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Betis 1 · draws 5 · Real Madrid 4.

Real BetisDrawsReal Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-24Real Betis1-1Real MadridLa Liga
2026-01-04Real Madrid5-1Real BetisLa Liga
2025-03-01Real Betis2-1Real MadridLa Liga
2024-09-01Real Madrid2-0Real BetisLa Liga
2024-05-25Real Madrid0-0Real BetisLa Liga
2023-12-09Real Betis1-1Real MadridLa Liga
2023-03-05Real Betis0-0Real MadridLa Liga
2022-09-03Real Madrid2-1Real BetisLa Liga
2022-05-20Real Madrid0-0Real BetisLa Liga
2021-08-28Real Betis0-1Real MadridLa Liga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match