Updated

La Liga · Matchday 5

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

· Bernabéu, Madrid· Referee Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain

Full time4 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Real Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real MadridDrawRayo Vallecano

Why this pick: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Madrid 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real MadridRayo Vallecano
2.21 xG per 90 1.58
2.13 npxG per 90 1.50
13.0 PPDA 7.4
10.8 Deep completions per 90 3.9
2.08 xPTS per 90 1.40

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal MadridDrawRayo Vallecano
Model72%18%10%
Market84%10%5%
Published81%12%6%
Edge-12%+8%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 47 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.24Now 1.14 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Madrid1.241.14-0.10
Draw7.179.20+2.03
Rayo Vallecano14.1018.74+4.64

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.53Real Madrid
0.95Rayo Vallecano
Total expected goals
3.48
Attack rating (Real Madrid / Rayo Vallecano)
1.50 / 0.96
Defence rating (Real Madrid / Rayo Vallecano)
0.87 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 1 5.9% 8.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.3% 2 9.6% 9.1% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 3 8.5% 8.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 4+ 10.7% 10.2% 4.8% 1.5% 0.4%

Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Madrid81%1.23
Draw12%8.10
Rayo Vallecano6%15.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.31
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.40
Double chance1X (Real Madrid or draw)94%1.07
12 (either side)88%1.14
X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano)19%5.37
Handicap -1Real Madrid win by 2+53%1.90
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano recent form

Real Madrid 5W 0D 1L
Rayo Vallecano 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Madrid at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Rayo Vallecano away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
3.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Madrid at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Madrid absences

  • Eder Militao hamstring injury
  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • Rodrygo knee injury

Rayo Vallecano absences

  • A. Batalla broken calfbone
  • F. Perez suspended
  • I. Balliu ankle injury
  • I. Palazon muscle injury
  • J. Vertrouwd muscle injury
  • J. de Frutos suspended
  • Luiz Felipe hamstring injury
  • M. Kumbulla muscle injury
  • R. Nteka muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Courtois
  2. 18 Álvaro Fernández
  3. 16 I. Konaté
  4. 22 A. Rüdiger
  5. 24 D. Dumfries
  6. 20 Bernardo Silva
  7. 8 F. Valverde
  8. 7 Vinícius Júnior
  9. 5 J. Bellingham
  10. 25 Y. Diomande
  11. 10 Kylian Mbappé

Bench: Raúl Asencio, D. Huijsen, E. Camavinga, Endrick, T. Alexander-Arnold, A. Lunin, A. Tchouaméni, A. Güler, Marc Cucurella, Carlos Espí, Brahim Díaz, Thiago Pitarch

Rayo Vallecano lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 E. Audero
  2. 17 Adrià Pedrosa
  3. 6 P. Ciss
  4. 24 F. Lejeune
  5. 2 A. Rațiu
  6. 36 G. Bouare
  7. 8 Unai López
  8. 18 Álvaro García
  9. 4 Pedro Díaz
  10. 14 G. Tsitaishvili
  11. 10 Sergio Camello

Bench: Dani Cárdenas, M. Kumbulla, Alemão, Mujaid Sadick, I. Balliu, Pelayo Fernández, Óscar Valentín, Marco de las Sías, Samu Becerra, Adrián Molina, M. Roman, Rayane Belid

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Madrid 5 · draws 4 · Rayo Vallecano 1.

Real MadridDrawsRayo Vallecano
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-01Real Madrid2-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2025-11-09Rayo Vallecano0-0Real MadridLa Liga
2025-03-09Real Madrid2-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2024-12-14Rayo Vallecano3-3Real MadridLa Liga
2024-02-18Rayo Vallecano1-1Real MadridLa Liga
2023-11-05Real Madrid0-0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2023-05-24Real Madrid2-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2022-11-07Rayo Vallecano3-2Real MadridLa Liga
2022-02-26Rayo Vallecano0-1Real MadridLa Liga
2021-11-06Real Madrid2-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match