Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Malaga 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Celta Vigo vs Malaga: model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Published | 51% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | -21% | +7% | +14% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Celta Vigo vs Malaga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.75 | 1.72 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.70 | -0.08 |
| Malaga | 5.59 | 5.25 | -0.34 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celta Vigo and Malaga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Malaga)
- 0.79 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Malaga)
- 1.26 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celta Vigo vs Malaga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celta Vigo vs Malaga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celta Vigo vs Malaga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celta Vigo | 51% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Malaga | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celta Vigo or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Malaga) | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celta Vigo win by 2+ | 16% | 6.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Celta Vigo and Malaga recent form
Celta Vigo
1W 3D 2L
Malaga
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celta Vigo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Malaga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Malaga away only.
Injuries & availability
Celta Vigo absences
-
A. Antanon
ankle injury
-
A. Febas
ribs injury
-
B. Iglesias
injury
-
J. El Abdellaoui
injury
Malaga absences
-
A. Aznou
illness
-
A. Ochoa
knee injury
-
A. Pastor
illness
-
D. Murillo
injury
-
F. Calero
ribs injury
-
J. Lobete
knee injury
-
M. Diarra
calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Celta Vigo lineup · 3-4-3
- 13 I. Radu
- 3 Marcos Alonso
- 18 Yoel Lago
- 21 S. Cáceres
- 5 Sergio Carreira
- 6 I. Moriba
- 8 Miguel Román
- 17 Javi Rueda
- 23 Hugo Álvarez
- 9 Ferran Jutglà
- 16 Hugo González
Bench: A. Bayındır, C. Starfelt, A. Faye, Iago Aspas, Pablo Durán, Álvaro Núñez, W. Swedberg, Javi Rodríguez, Javi Galán, C. Driouech, Iván Villar, H. Burcio
Malaga lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 Alfonso Herrero
- 12 José Salinas
- 4 Einar Galilea
- 15 Ángel Recio
- 31 Rafita
- 11 Joaquín Muñoz
- 18 Pablo Martínez
- 23 Izan Merino
- 10 David Larrubia
- 9 Chupe
- 22 Dani Lorenzo
Bench: J. Cajuste, Puga, Ramón Enríquez, Carlos López, Rafa Rodríguez, Eneko Jauregi, Juan Cruz, Adrián Niño Heredia, Juan Berrocal, J. Fernandez
Celta Vigo vs Malaga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Celta Vigo 4 · draws 1 · Malaga 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-18 | Celta Vigo | 0-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2017-10-29 | Malaga | 2-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2017-05-07 | Malaga | 3-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2017-01-08 | Celta Vigo | 3-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2016-05-08 | Celta Vigo | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2016-01-02 | Malaga | 2-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2015-04-29 | Celta Vigo | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2014-12-13 | Malaga | 1-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2014-03-21 | Celta Vigo | 0-2 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2013-10-26 | Malaga | 0-5 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Sevilla vs Valencia 2026-09-11
- Racing Santander vs Alaves 2026-09-12
- Osasuna vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Athletic Club v Elche — match page 2026-09-12
- Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-09-12
- Levante vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-13
- Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Celta Vigo, previous: Getafe vs Celta Vigo prediction
- Celta Vigo, next: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander: odds and pick
- Malaga, previous: Malaga – Levante, 2026-09-06
- Malaga, next: Malaga vs Villarreal: odds and pick