Why this pick: Levante vs Barcelona
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Levante 10, Barcelona 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Levante vs Barcelona: model vs market
| Source | Levante | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Market | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| Published | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| Edge | +20% | +12% | -32% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Levante vs Barcelona odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante | 7.60 | 15.00 | +7.40 |
| Draw | 4.80 | 8.30 | +3.50 |
| Barcelona | 1.41 | 1.17 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Levante and Barcelona expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.74
- Attack rating (Levante / Barcelona)
- 1.23 / 1.85
- Defence rating (Levante / Barcelona)
- 1.05 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levante vs Barcelona score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levante goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levante vs Barcelona goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levante vs Barcelona
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levante | 11% | 8.79 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.87 | |
| Barcelona | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.38 |
| No | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levante or draw) | 26% | 3.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Barcelona) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win by 2+ | 31% | 3.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Levante and Barcelona recent form
Levante
2W 2D 2L
Barcelona
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levante at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 5.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Barcelona away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 5.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Levante at home only, Barcelona away only.
Injuries & availability
Levante absences
-
A. Primo
shoulder injury
-
K. Etta Eyong
injury
Barcelona absences
-
F. de Jong
knee injury
-
R. Bardghji
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Levante vs Barcelona head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Levante 1 · draws 1 · Barcelona 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2025-08-23 | Levante | 2-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2022-04-10 | Levante | 2-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2021-09-26 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2021-05-11 | Levante | 3-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2020-12-13 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2020-02-02 | Barcelona | 2-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2019-11-02 | Levante | 3-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2019-04-27 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2019-01-17 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Levante | Copa del Rey |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Sevilla vs Valencia 2026-09-11
- Racing Santander vs Alaves 2026-09-12
- Osasuna vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Athletic Club v Elche — match page 2026-09-12
- Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-09-12
- Celta Vigo vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-13
- Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Levante, previous: Malaga – Levante, 2026-09-06
- Levante, next: Villarreal v Levante analysis
- Barcelona, previous: Valencia vs Barcelona prediction
- Barcelona, next: Barcelona – Racing Santander, 2026-09-16