Updated

La Liga · Matchday 6

Real Betis vs Getafe

· Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla· Referee J. Sanchez

Full time1 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Real Betis to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real BetisDrawGetafe

Why this pick: Real Betis vs Getafe

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Betis 10, Getafe 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real BetisGetafe
1.80 xG per 90 0.97
1.71 npxG per 90 0.90
16.4 PPDA 11.3
7.9 Deep completions per 90 3.1
1.29 xPTS per 90 1.25

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Betis vs Getafe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal BetisDrawGetafe
Model56%24%20%
Market59%25%16%
Published59%24%17%
Edge-3%-1%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.29.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Betis vs Getafe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 35 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.62Now 1.62 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Betis1.621.62+0.00
Draw3.403.90+0.50
Getafe4.606.00+1.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Betis and Getafe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.08Real Betis
1.29Getafe
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Real Betis / Getafe)
1.31 / 0.84
Defence rating (Real Betis / Getafe)
1.33 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Betis vs Getafe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 2.2% 2.6% 1.1% 0.5% 1 5.0% 10.5% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0% 2 7.4% 9.5% 6.1% 2.6% 1.1% 3 5.4% 7.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.8% 4+ 4.9% 6.3% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7%

Rows: Real Betis goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Betis vs Getafe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Betis vs Getafe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Betis59%1.71
Draw24%4.09
Getafe17%5.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.48
Under 2.533%3.07
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.94
Double chance1X (Real Betis or draw)83%1.21
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Getafe)41%2.41
Handicap -1Real Betis win by 2+36%2.79
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Betis and Getafe recent form

Real Betis 5W 0D 1L
Getafe 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Betis at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Getafe away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Betis at home only, Getafe away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Betis absences

  • A. Ruibal knee injury
  • D. Llorente broken nose
  • J. Morante coach's decision

Getafe absences

  • A. Abqar muscle injury
  • A. Garcia injury
  • C. Uche knee injury
  • Juanmi injury
  • Kiko Femenia hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Betis lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Álvaro Vallés
  2. 23 Junior Firpo
  3. 16 V. Gómez
  4. 4 Natan
  5. 12 Ángel Ortiz
  6. 18 N. Deossa
  7. 6 F. Bernal
  8. 10 A. Ezzalzouli
  9. 22 Isco
  10. 7 Antony
  11. 19 T. Parrott

Bench: Héctor Bellerín, Marc Bartra, Pablo Fornals, C. Hernández, Fran García, Iker Losada, Álvaro Fidalgo, Rodrigo Riquelme, G. Lo Celso, Marc Roca, Dani Ceballos, Manu González

Getafe lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 13 David Soria
  2. 3 Davinchi
  3. 24 Z. Romero
  4. 2 D. Dakonam
  5. 8 N. Gudelj
  6. 21 Andrés García
  7. 16 Francho Serrano
  8. 23 O. Mangala
  9. 6 Mario Martín
  10. 10 M. Satriano
  11. 20 Iván Azón

Bench: J. Letáček, S. Sazonov, S. Boselli, E. Ünal, J. Mojica, J. Valou, Alberto Risco, Óscar López, M. Hamdoune, Joselu, Diego Ferrer

Real Betis vs Getafe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Betis 5 · draws 3 · Getafe 2.

Real BetisDrawsGetafe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-08Getafe2-0Real BetisLa Liga
2025-12-21Real Betis4-0GetafeLa Liga
2025-02-23Getafe1-2Real BetisLa Liga
2024-09-18Real Betis2-1GetafeLa Liga
2024-02-04Real Betis1-1GetafeLa Liga
2023-10-21Getafe1-1Real BetisLa Liga
2023-05-24Real Betis0-1GetafeLa Liga
2023-01-28Getafe0-1Real BetisLa Liga
2022-05-02Getafe0-0Real BetisLa Liga
2021-09-26Real Betis2-0GetafeLa Liga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match