Why this pick: Sevilla vs Valencia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sevilla 10, Valencia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sevilla vs Valencia: model vs market
| Source | Sevilla | Draw | Valencia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.10.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sevilla vs Valencia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sevilla, 44 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 2.10 | 1.96 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.34 | +0.34 |
| Valencia | 3.10 | 4.25 | +1.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sevilla and Valencia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Sevilla / Valencia)
- 0.79 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Sevilla / Valencia)
- 1.05 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sevilla vs Valencia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sevilla vs Valencia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sevilla vs Valencia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Valencia | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sevilla or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Valencia) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sevilla and Valencia recent form
Sevilla
2W 1D 3L
Valencia
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sevilla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Valencia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Sevilla at home only, Valencia away only.
Injuries & availability
Sevilla absences
-
A. Sangante
suspended
-
R. Vargas
knee injury
Valencia absences
-
D. Foulquier
injury
-
D. Lopez
knee injury
-
G. Rodriguez
muscle injury
-
J. Copete
ankle injury
-
L. Rioja
injury
-
M. Diakhaby
muscle injury
-
S. Canos
knee injury
-
U. Sadiq
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Sevilla lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 17 G. Suazo
- 4 Kike Salas
- 5 Andrés Castrín
- 2 Juan Iglesias
- 20 Félix Correia
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 6 L. Agoumé
- 30 M. Sierra
- 16 Isaac
- 19 L. Stassin
Bench: Julio Díaz del Romo, Alfon González, G. Kochorashvili, R. Ure, Peque Fernández, Fran González, Manu Bueno, Jon Guridi, C. Ejuke, José Ángel Carmona, Marcão
Valencia lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 14 José Gayà
- 5 César Tárrega
- 18 Pepelu
- 22 Arnau Martínez
- 39 R. Sato
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 15 A. Dieng
- 27 David Otorbi
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 8 Javi Guerra
Bench: Hugo Duro, H. Elliott, J. de Haas, Dani Raba, Jesús Vázquez, Pablo Maffeo, K. van Oevelen, Alex Panach, Aaron Mayol, Iker Córdoba, Aimar Blázquez, Jaume Durá
Sevilla vs Valencia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sevilla 2 · draws 5 · Valencia 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Sevilla | 0-2 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-12-07 | Valencia | 1-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-04-11 | Valencia | 1-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-01-11 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2024-02-17 | Valencia | 0-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-08-11 | Sevilla | 1-2 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2023-04-16 | Valencia | 0-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2022-10-18 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2022-01-19 | Valencia | 1-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2021-09-22 | Sevilla | 3-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Racing Santander vs Alaves 2026-09-12
- Osasuna vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Athletic Club v Elche — match page 2026-09-12
- Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-09-12
- Celta Vigo vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Levante vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Getafe v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-13
- Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Sevilla, previous: Espanyol vs Sevilla: odds and pick
- Sevilla, next: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla: odds and pick
- Valencia, previous: Valencia vs Barcelona prediction
- Valencia, next: Alaves vs Valencia prediction