Updated

La Liga · Matchday 5

Racing Santander vs Alaves

· El Sardinero, Santander· Referee Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

Full time2 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Racing Santander to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Racing SantanderDrawAlaves

Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Alaves

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 4, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Racing SantanderAlaves
1.58 xG per 90 1.55
1.21 npxG per 90 1.47
9.4 PPDA 12.6
7.8 Deep completions per 90 4.9
1.75 xPTS per 90 1.81

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Racing Santander vs Alaves: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRacing SantanderDrawAlaves
Model52%24%24%
Market39%27%34%
Published42%26%32%
Edge+13%-3%-10%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.45.
  • The market prices Racing Santander below the model: +13.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Racing Santander vs Alaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 51 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.55Now 2.46 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Racing Santander2.552.46-0.09
Draw3.403.50+0.10
Alaves2.752.80+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Racing Santander and Alaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05Racing Santander
1.45Alaves
Total expected goals
3.50
Attack rating (Racing Santander / Alaves)
1.51 / 1.10
Defence rating (Racing Santander / Alaves)
1.17 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Racing Santander vs Alaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 2.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 1 4.2% 10.2% 6.2% 3.0% 1.5% 2 6.3% 9.1% 6.6% 3.2% 1.6% 3 4.5% 6.6% 4.8% 2.3% 1.2% 4+ 4.0% 5.8% 4.2% 2.0% 1.0%

Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Racing Santander vs Alaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Racing Santander vs Alaves

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Racing Santander42%2.38
Draw26%3.78
Alaves32%3.17
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.31
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.27
Double chance1X (Racing Santander or draw)68%1.46
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Alaves)58%1.72
Handicap -1Racing Santander win by 2+32%3.09
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Racing Santander and Alaves recent form

Racing Santander 2W 2D 2L
Alaves 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Racing Santander at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Alaves away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Alaves away only.

Injuries & availability

Racing Santander absences

  • A. Martin knee injury
  • S. Eriksson shoulder injury

Alaves absences

  • F. Garces suspended
  • M. Rodriguez ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Racing Santander lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Julen Agirrezabala
  2. 17 Jorge Salinas
  3. 24 J. Belocian
  4. 5 Pablo Ramón
  5. 2 Álvaro Mantilla
  6. 18 M. Prati
  7. 23 Iván Martín
  8. 10 Iñigo Vicente
  9. 20 Sergio Canales
  10. 15 Pablo García
  11. 21 M. Zabiri

Bench: Aarón Martín, Manu Hernando, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, G. Guliashvili, André Almeida, Juan Carlos Arana, Asier Villalibre, M. Gueye, Facundo González, Iker Luque, Pedro Felipe, Laro Gómez

Alaves lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Sivera
  2. 17 Jonny
  3. 16 V. Koski
  4. 14 N. Tenaglia
  5. 7 Angel Pérez
  6. 21 A. Rebbach
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco
  8. 19 Pablo Ibáñez
  9. 4 Denis Suárez
  10. 9 M. Díaz
  11. 15 L. Boyé

Bench: N. Valentini, Yusi, Guevara, Carles Aleñá, Toni Martínez, Hugo Novoa, A. Giménez, Aitor Mañas, Miguel Rodríguez, C. Benavídez, Selu Diallo, X. Olaiz

Racing Santander vs Alaves head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Racing Santander 0 · draws 3 · Alaves 2.

Racing SantanderDrawsAlaves
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-07Racing Santander1-1AlavesFriendlies Clubs
2024-07-17Racing Santander0-0AlavesFriendlies Clubs
2023-07-22Racing Santander1-2AlavesFriendlies Clubs
2023-01-21Alaves3-0Racing SantanderSegunda División
2022-11-01Racing Santander1-1AlavesSegunda División

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match