Why this pick: Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Deportivo La Coruna 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 33% | 32% |
| Published | 34% | 33% | 34% |
| Edge | -6% | -2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Coruna, 30 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.05 | 2.69 | +0.64 |
| Draw | 2.95 | 2.86 | -0.09 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 3.85 | 3.00 | -0.85 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (Getafe / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 0.86 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Getafe / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 1.02 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+ | 21% | 4.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Getafe and Deportivo La Coruna recent form
Getafe
2W 1D 3L
Deportivo La Coruna
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Deportivo La Coruna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.
Injuries & availability
Getafe absences
-
A. Abqar
muscle injury
-
C. Uche
knee injury
-
Francho
injury
-
Juanmi
injury
-
Kiko Femenia
hamstring injury
-
Z. Romero
suspended
Deportivo La Coruna absences
-
J. Asp
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Getafe 6 · draws 3 · Deportivo La Coruna 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-28 | Getafe | 3-0 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2017-09-30 | Deportivo La Coruna | 2-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2016-05-01 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2015-12-30 | Getafe | 0-0 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2015-04-05 | Getafe | 2-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2014-10-31 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2013-02-02 | Getafe | 3-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2012-09-01 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2011-02-05 | Getafe | 4-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2010-09-20 | Deportivo La Coruna | 2-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Sevilla vs Valencia 2026-09-11
- Racing Santander vs Alaves 2026-09-12
- Osasuna vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Athletic Club v Elche — match page 2026-09-12
- Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-09-12
- Celta Vigo vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Levante vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Getafe vs Celta Vigo prediction
- Getafe, next: Real Betis v Getafe analysis
- Deportivo La Coruna, previous: Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna: odds and pick
- Deportivo La Coruna, next: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla: odds and pick