Updated

La Liga · Matchday 4

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna

· Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal· Referee Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain

Full time2 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Villarreal to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VillarrealDrawDeportivo La Coruna

Why this pick: Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Deportivo La Coruna 3). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VillarrealDeportivo La Coruna
1.93 xG per 90 0.96
1.41 npxG per 90 0.96
14.2 PPDA 16.1
9.4 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.62 xPTS per 90 1.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVillarrealDrawDeportivo La Coruna
Model43%29%28%
Market66%20%14%
Published60%22%18%
Edge-23%+9%+14%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.61Now 1.46 -0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Villarreal1.611.46-0.16
Draw4.104.75+0.65
Deportivo La Coruna5.306.85+1.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Villarreal
1.27Deportivo La Coruna
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (Villarreal / Deportivo La Coruna)
1.27 / 1.15
Defence rating (Villarreal / Deportivo La Coruna)
0.99 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 4.9% 4.6% 1.9% 0.8% 1 6.7% 13.8% 7.3% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.2% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 3 3.9% 4.9% 3.1% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 2.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Villarreal60%1.67
Draw22%4.46
Deportivo La Coruna18%5.70
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.22
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.67
No40%2.49
Double chance1X (Villarreal or draw)82%1.21
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna)40%2.50
Handicap -1Villarreal win by 2+23%4.34
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Villarreal and Deportivo La Coruna recent form

Villarreal 1W 2D 3L
Deportivo La Coruna 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo La Coruna away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.

Injuries & availability

Villarreal absences

  • J. Foyth injury

Deportivo La Coruna absences

  • A. Altimira suspended
  • A. Traore muscle injury
  • M. Casado coach's decision
  • N. Carrillo injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Villarreal 4 · draws 4 · Deportivo La Coruna 2.

VillarrealDrawsDeportivo La Coruna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2018-05-12Deportivo La Coruna2-4VillarrealLa Liga
2018-01-07Villarreal1-1Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2017-05-14Villarreal0-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2017-01-14Deportivo La Coruna0-0VillarrealLa Liga
2016-05-08Villarreal0-2Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2016-01-03Deportivo La Coruna1-2VillarrealLa Liga
2015-05-02Deportivo La Coruna1-1VillarrealLa Liga
2014-12-21Villarreal3-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
2011-02-13Deportivo La Coruna1-0VillarrealLa Liga
2010-09-23Villarreal1-0Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match