Updated

La Liga · Matchday 7

Valencia vs Real Sociedad

· Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia· Referee Jose Luis Munuera Montero

Full time2 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Valencia to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ValenciaDrawReal Sociedad

Why this pick: Valencia vs Real Sociedad

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Real Sociedad 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ValenciaReal Sociedad
1.04 xG per 90 1.12
0.97 npxG per 90 1.12
15.4 PPDA 12.4
3.6 Deep completions per 90 5.1
1.14 xPTS per 90 0.87

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Valencia vs Real Sociedad: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceValenciaDrawReal Sociedad
Model49%27%24%
Market34%28%38%
Published38%28%34%
Edge+15%-1%-14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.21.
  • The market prices Valencia below the model: +14.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Valencia vs Real Sociedad odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Valencia, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-14.

Opened 2.73Now 2.80 +0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Valencia2.732.80+0.07
Draw3.383.40+0.02
Real Sociedad2.512.55+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Valencia and Real Sociedad expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Valencia
1.21Real Sociedad
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Valencia / Real Sociedad)
0.82 / 0.92
Defence rating (Valencia / Real Sociedad)
1.14 / 1.30

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Valencia vs Real Sociedad score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 3.8% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 1 6.7% 12.9% 6.5% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.0% 9.7% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 3 4.8% 5.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 3.2% 3.9% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Valencia vs Real Sociedad goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Valencia vs Real Sociedad

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Valencia38%2.64
Draw28%3.57
Real Sociedad34%2.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.73
Under 2.542%2.37
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.55
Double chance1X (Valencia or draw)66%1.52
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Real Sociedad)62%1.61
Handicap -1Valencia win by 2+28%3.53
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Valencia and Real Sociedad recent form

Valencia 1W 1D 4L
Real Sociedad 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Valencia at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
  • They average 0.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

Real Sociedad away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Real Sociedad away only.

Injuries & availability

Valencia absences

  • C. Tarrega hamstring injury
  • D. Foulquier injury
  • D. Lopez knee injury
  • J. Copete ankle injury
  • M. Diakhaby muscle injury
  • S. Canos knee injury
  • U. Sadiq muscle injury

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • I. Zubeldia injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Valencia lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 S. Dimitrievski
  2. 14 José Gayà
  3. 12 J. de Haas
  4. 18 Pepelu
  5. 24 Pablo Maffeo
  6. 7 A. Danjuma
  7. 2 G. Rodríguez
  8. 23 F. Ugrinic
  9. 33 Aaron Mayol
  10. 9 Hugo Duro
  11. 8 Javi Guerra

Bench: H. Elliott, Luis Rioja, A. Dieng, Dani Raba, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez, K. van Oevelen, David Otorbi, Alex Panach, Iker Córdoba, Aimar Blázquez, R. Sato

Real Sociedad lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 Álex Remiro
  2. 17 Sergio Gómez
  3. 6 Jon Martín
  4. 34 Luken Beitia
  5. 2 J. Aramburu
  6. 12 J. Ochieng
  7. 18 Carlos Soler
  8. 4 Jon Gorrotxategi
  9. 11 Gonçalo Guedes
  10. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal
  11. 24 L. Sučić

Bench: Aihen Muñoz, Barrenetxea, Beñat Turrientes, O. Óskarsson, Unai Marrero, T. Kubo, Jon Pacheco, M. Sarr, Y. Herrera, Héctor Fort, A. Zakharyan, Alex Garcia

Valencia vs Real Sociedad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Valencia 3 · draws 4 · Real Sociedad 3.

ValenciaDrawsReal Sociedad
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Real Sociedad3-4ValenciaLa Liga
2025-08-16Valencia1-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2025-01-19Valencia1-0Real SociedadLa Liga
2024-09-28Real Sociedad3-0ValenciaLa Liga
2024-05-16Real Sociedad1-0ValenciaLa Liga
2023-09-27Valencia0-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2023-02-25Valencia1-0Real SociedadLa Liga
2022-11-06Real Sociedad1-1ValenciaLa Liga
2022-02-06Valencia0-0Real SociedadLa Liga
2021-11-21Real Sociedad0-0ValenciaLa Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match