Why this pick: Getafe vs Malaga
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Malaga 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Malaga: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Published | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Edge | -4% | +3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Getafe vs Malaga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Getafe, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.12 | 2.02 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 2.98 | 3.15 | +0.17 |
| Malaga | 3.83 | 4.10 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Malaga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Getafe / Malaga)
- 0.80 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Getafe / Malaga)
- 1.05 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Malaga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Malaga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Malaga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Malaga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Malaga | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Malaga) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Getafe win by 2+ | 21% | 4.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Getafe and Malaga recent form
Getafe
1W 2D 3L
Malaga
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Malaga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Malaga away only.
Injuries & availability
Getafe absences
-
A. Abqar
muscle injury
-
C. Uche
knee injury
-
Juanmi
injury
-
Kiko Femenia
hamstring injury
-
M. Martin
suspended
Malaga absences
-
A. Aznou
muscle injury
-
A. Ochoa
knee injury
-
D. Murillo
injury
-
F. Calero
ribs injury
-
J. Cajuste
injury
-
J. Lobete
knee injury
-
M. Diarra
calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Getafe lineup · 4-4-2
- 13 David Soria
- 22 J. Mojica
- 24 Z. Romero
- 2 D. Dakonam
- 21 Andrés García
- 10 M. Satriano
- 16 Francho Serrano
- 8 N. Gudelj
- 11 Ramón Terrats
- 20 Iván Azón
- 19 E. Ünal
Bench: J. Letáček, Davinchi, S. Sazonov, Borja Mayoral, S. Boselli, O. Mangala, J. Valou, Alberto Risco, M. Hamdoune, Diego Ferrer
Malaga lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 Alfonso Herrero
- 12 José Salinas
- 15 M. Diarra
- 25 Juan Berrocal
- 31 Rafita
- 11 Joaquín Muñoz
- 22 Dani Lorenzo
- 14 Rafa Rodríguez
- 10 David Larrubia
- 17 Eneko Jauregi
- 8 Carlos Dotor
Bench: Puga, Einar Galilea, Álex Pastor, Ramón Enríquez, Chupe, Carlos López, Pablo Martínez, Juan Cruz, Adrián Niño Heredia, Izan Merino, Andrés Céspedes, J. Fernandez
Getafe vs Malaga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Getafe 6 · draws 0 · Malaga 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | Malaga | 0-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2018-01-12 | Getafe | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2016-02-05 | Malaga | 3-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2015-09-18 | Getafe | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2015-02-28 | Malaga | 3-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2014-09-28 | Getafe | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2014-04-26 | Getafe | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2013-12-14 | Malaga | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2013-04-28 | Malaga | 2-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2012-12-01 | Getafe | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Espanyol v Elche — match page 2026-09-18
- Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-09-19
- Athletic Club vs Alaves 2026-09-19
- Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Sevilla v Barcelona — match page 2026-09-19
- Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-20
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis 2026-09-20
- Villarreal vs Levante 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Real Betis v Getafe analysis
- Getafe, next: Barcelona v Getafe analysis
- Malaga, previous: Malaga vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Malaga, next: Malaga vs Espanyol prediction