Updated

La Liga · Matchday 7

Athletic Club vs Alaves

· San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao· Referee Victor Garcia Verdura

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Athletic Club to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Athletic ClubDrawAlaves

Why this pick: Athletic Club vs Alaves

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Athletic Club 10, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Athletic ClubAlaves
1.69 xG per 90 1.70
1.69 npxG per 90 1.63
13.6 PPDA 12.6
6.1 Deep completions per 90 4.3
1.72 xPTS per 90 1.85

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Athletic Club vs Alaves: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAthletic ClubDrawAlaves
Model44%28%28%
Market59%24%17%
Published55%25%20%
Edge-15%+4%+11%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Athletic Club vs Alaves odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 1.81Now 1.64 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Athletic Club1.811.64-0.17
Draw3.704.00+0.30
Alaves5.155.50+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Athletic Club and Alaves expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.58Athletic Club
1.31Alaves
Total expected goals
2.89
Attack rating (Athletic Club / Alaves)
1.18 / 1.13
Defence rating (Athletic Club / Alaves)
1.00 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Athletic Club vs Alaves score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 4.5% 4.4% 1.9% 0.8% 1 6.3% 13.4% 7.3% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.1% 9.3% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.9% 5.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.4% 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Athletic Club vs Alaves goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Athletic Club vs Alaves

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Athletic Club55%1.83
Draw25%3.98
Alaves20%4.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.33
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Athletic Club or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Alaves)45%2.21
Handicap -1Athletic Club win by 2+24%4.18
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Athletic Club and Alaves recent form

Athletic Club 2W 1D 3L
Alaves 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Athletic Club at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alaves away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Alaves away only.

Injuries & availability

Athletic Club absences

  • D. Vivian hamstring injury
  • U. Egiluz knee injury

Alaves absences

  • A. Manas injury
  • F. Garces suspended
  • M. Rodriguez ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Athletic Club lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Unai Simón
  2. 17 Yuri
  3. 14 Aymeric Laporte
  4. 4 Aitor Paredes
  5. 31 J. Louis-Jean
  6. 18 Mikel Jauregizar
  7. 16 Ruíz de Galarreta
  8. 10 Nico Williams
  9. 8 Oihan Sancet
  10. 23 Robert Navarro
  11. 9 I. Williams

Bench: Yeray, Beñat Prados, Álex Berenguer, Jesús Areso, Álex Padilla, Hugo Rincón, Alejandro Rego, Maroan Sannadi, Nico Serrano, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Álvaro Djaló, Peio Canales

Alaves lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Sivera
  2. 21 A. Rebbach
  3. 2 N. Valentini
  4. 16 V. Koski
  5. 17 Jonny
  6. 14 N. Tenaglia
  7. 19 Pablo Ibáñez
  8. 6 Guevara
  9. 23 C. Benavídez
  10. 9 M. Díaz
  11. 15 L. Boyé

Bench: Yusi, Denis Suárez, Angel Pérez, Antonio Blanco, Carles Aleñá, Toni Martínez, Hugo Novoa, A. Giménez, Miguel Rodríguez, Selu Diallo, X. Olaiz

Athletic Club vs Alaves head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Athletic Club 5 · draws 3 · Alaves 2.

Athletic ClubDrawsAlaves
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Alaves2-4Athletic ClubLa Liga
2025-09-13Athletic Club0-1AlavesLa Liga
2025-07-22Alaves1-0Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
2025-05-11Athletic Club1-0AlavesLa Liga
2024-12-15Alaves1-1Athletic ClubLa Liga
2024-03-16Athletic Club2-0AlavesLa Liga
2024-01-16Athletic Club2-0AlavesCopa del Rey
2023-09-22Alaves0-2Athletic ClubLa Liga
2022-08-06Athletic Club1-1AlavesFriendlies Clubs
2022-01-09Alaves0-0Athletic ClubLa Liga

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match