Updated

La Liga · Matchday 7

Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander

· Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo· Referee Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Full time5 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Celta Vigo to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Celta VigoDrawRacing Santander

Why this pick: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Celta Vigo 10, Racing Santander 6). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Celta VigoRacing Santander
1.03 xG per 90 1.52
1.03 npxG per 90 1.27
14.2 PPDA 11.9
6.1 Deep completions per 90 6.5
1.11 xPTS per 90 1.29

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCelta VigoDrawRacing Santander
Model38%25%37%
Market54%25%21%
Published50%25%25%
Edge-16%0%+16%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Celta Vigo, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 1.83Now 1.77 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Celta Vigo1.831.77-0.07
Draw3.673.88+0.21
Racing Santander4.254.47+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Celta Vigo and Racing Santander expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Celta Vigo
1.87Racing Santander
Total expected goals
3.67
Attack rating (Celta Vigo / Racing Santander)
0.76 / 1.48
Defence rating (Celta Vigo / Racing Santander)
1.10 / 1.50

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.0% 2.7% 4.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1 2.7% 9.9% 7.7% 4.8% 3.4% 2 4.2% 7.8% 7.3% 4.5% 3.3% 3 2.6% 4.9% 4.6% 2.9% 2.0% 4+ 1.9% 3.6% 3.3% 2.1% 1.5%

Rows: Celta Vigo goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Celta Vigo50%2.00
Draw25%4.06
Racing Santander25%3.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.63
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.36
No27%3.77
Double chance1X (Celta Vigo or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Racing Santander)50%2.00
Handicap -1Celta Vigo win by 2+21%4.70
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Celta Vigo and Racing Santander recent form

Celta Vigo 0W 3D 3L
Racing Santander 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Celta Vigo at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.

Racing Santander away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
3.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Celta Vigo at home only, Racing Santander away only.

Injuries & availability

Celta Vigo absences

  • A. Antanon ankle injury
  • I. Aspas muscle injury
  • J. El Abdellaoui knee injury

Racing Santander absences

  • A. Martin knee injury
  • S. Eriksson shoulder injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Celta Vigo lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 13 I. Radu
  2. 21 S. Cáceres
  3. 18 Yoel Lago
  4. 15 Álvaro Núñez
  5. 23 Hugo Álvarez
  6. 8 Miguel Román
  7. 6 I. Moriba
  8. 17 Javi Rueda
  9. 19 W. Swedberg
  10. 9 Ferran Jutglà
  11. 16 Hugo González

Bench: A. Bayındır, C. Starfelt, Marcos Alonso, A. Faye, Sergio Carreira, Borja Iglesias, Pablo Durán, Aleix Febas, Javi Rodríguez, Javi Galán, C. Driouech, H. Burcio

Racing Santander lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 Julen Agirrezabala
  2. 17 Jorge Salinas
  3. 24 J. Belocian
  4. 5 Pablo Ramón
  5. 2 Álvaro Mantilla
  6. 23 Iván Martín
  7. 8 André Almeida
  8. 19 Iker Luque
  9. 10 Iñigo Vicente
  10. 15 Pablo García
  11. 21 M. Zabiri

Bench: Aarón Martín, Manu Hernando, Íñigo Sainz-Maza, G. Guliashvili, Juan Carlos Arana, Asier Villalibre, M. Gueye, Facundo González, M. Prati, Sergio Canales, Pedro Felipe, Laro Gómez

Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Celta Vigo 1 · draws 0 · Racing Santander 0.

Celta VigoDrawsRacing Santander
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-01-05Racing Santander2-3Celta VigoCopa del Rey

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match