Updated

La Liga · Matchday 6

Alaves vs Valencia

· Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz· Referee M. Sesma

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Alaves to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AlavesDrawValencia

Why this pick: Alaves vs Valencia

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Valencia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AlavesValencia
1.63 xG per 90 1.04
1.56 npxG per 90 0.96
12.4 PPDA 15.2
4.5 Deep completions per 90 3.5
1.78 xPTS per 90 1.11

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Alaves vs Valencia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlavesDrawValencia
Model67%22%11%
Market56%27%17%
Published59%25%15%
Edge+10%-5%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Alaves below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Alaves vs Valencia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Alaves, 32 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 2.29Now 1.70 -0.59
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Alaves2.291.70-0.59
Draw3.313.60+0.29
Valencia3.625.70+2.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Alaves and Valencia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13Alaves
0.86Valencia
Total expected goals
2.99
Attack rating (Alaves / Valencia)
1.16 / 0.85
Defence rating (Alaves / Valencia)
0.88 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alaves vs Valencia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 2.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1 8.4% 10.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.3% 9.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.4% 7.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 7.9% 6.8% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2%

Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alaves vs Valencia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alaves vs Valencia

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Alaves59%1.69
Draw25%3.92
Valencia15%6.47
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.48
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.88
No47%2.14
Double chance1X (Alaves or draw)85%1.18
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Valencia)41%2.44
Handicap -1Alaves win by 2+45%2.22
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Alaves and Valencia recent form

Alaves 3W 1D 2L
Valencia 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Alaves at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Valencia away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Valencia away only.

Injuries & availability

Alaves absences

  • A. Manas injury
  • F. Garces suspended
  • M. Rodriguez ankle injury

Valencia absences

  • C. Tarrega hamstring injury
  • D. Foulquier injury
  • D. Lopez knee injury
  • J. Copete ankle injury
  • M. Diakhaby muscle injury
  • S. Canos knee injury
  • U. Sadiq muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Alaves lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 Sivera
  2. 2 N. Valentini
  3. 16 V. Koski
  4. 14 N. Tenaglia
  5. 21 A. Rebbach
  6. 4 Denis Suárez
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco
  8. 19 Pablo Ibáñez
  9. 7 Angel Pérez
  10. 11 Toni Martínez
  11. 15 L. Boyé

Bench: Yusi, Guevara, M. Díaz, Carles Aleñá, Hugo Novoa, A. Giménez, Jonny, Miguel Rodríguez, C. Benavídez, Selu Diallo, X. Olaiz

Valencia lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 S. Dimitrievski
  2. 14 José Gayà
  3. 12 J. de Haas
  4. 18 Pepelu
  5. 24 Pablo Maffeo
  6. 7 A. Danjuma
  7. 2 G. Rodríguez
  8. 33 Aaron Mayol
  9. 23 F. Ugrinic
  10. 9 Hugo Duro
  11. 8 Javi Guerra

Bench: H. Elliott, Luis Rioja, A. Dieng, Dani Raba, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez, K. van Oevelen, David Otorbi, Alex Panach, Iker Córdoba, Aimar Blázquez, R. Sato

Alaves vs Valencia head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Alaves 5 · draws 2 · Valencia 3.

AlavesDrawsValencia
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-08Valencia3-2AlavesLa Liga
2025-10-20Alaves0-0ValenciaLa Liga
2025-05-14Alaves1-0ValenciaLa Liga
2024-12-22Valencia2-2AlavesLa Liga
2024-07-24Valencia0-1AlavesFriendlies Clubs
2024-05-05Valencia0-1AlavesLa Liga
2023-09-02Alaves1-0ValenciaLa Liga
2023-07-29Valencia2-0AlavesFriendlies Clubs
2022-02-13Alaves2-1ValenciaLa Liga
2021-08-27Valencia3-0AlavesLa Liga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match