Updated

La Liga · Matchday 5

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

· Reale Arena, San Sebastian· Referee Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain

Full time0 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Atletico Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Real SociedadDrawAtletico Madrid

Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
1.23 xG per 90 1.67
1.16 npxG per 90 1.59
12.1 PPDA 11.3
4.7 Deep completions per 90 10.0
0.98 xPTS per 90 1.46

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReal SociedadDrawAtletico Madrid
Model50%25%25%
Market29%26%45%
Published34%26%40%
Edge+21%-2%-19%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 30 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.33Now 2.15 -0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Real Sociedad3.153.30+0.15
Draw3.723.65-0.07
Atletico Madrid2.332.15-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Real Sociedad
1.47Atletico Madrid
Total expected goals
3.44
Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Atletico Madrid)
1.02 / 1.02
Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Atletico Madrid)
1.27 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 2.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.8% 1 4.2% 10.6% 6.5% 3.2% 1.6% 2 6.2% 9.1% 6.7% 3.3% 1.7% 3 4.3% 6.3% 4.6% 2.3% 1.2% 4+ 3.6% 5.2% 3.9% 1.9% 1.0%

Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Real Sociedad34%2.92
Draw26%3.86
Atletico Madrid40%2.51
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.46
Under 2.531%3.19
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.23
Double chance1X (Real Sociedad or draw)60%1.66
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid)66%1.52
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win by 2+12%8.12
Push (exactly one goal)13%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid recent form

Real Sociedad 2W 2D 2L
Atletico Madrid 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Sociedad at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Atletico Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Sociedad absences

  • A. Odriozola knee injury
  • I. Zubeldia injury
  • J. Martin suspended

Atletico Madrid absences

  • A. Sorloth muscle injury
  • J. Alvarez injury
  • P. Barrios muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Real Sociedad lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Álex Remiro
  2. 17 Sergio Gómez
  3. 19 M. Sarr
  4. 34 Luken Beitia
  5. 2 J. Aramburu
  6. 18 Carlos Soler
  7. 21 Y. Herrera
  8. 7 Barrenetxea
  9. 24 L. Sučić
  10. 11 Gonçalo Guedes
  11. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal

Bench: Aihen Muñoz, Jon Gorrotxategi, Beñat Turrientes, O. Óskarsson, J. Ochieng, Unai Marrero, T. Kubo, Jon Pacheco, Héctor Fort, A. Zakharyan, Gorka Carrera, Alex Garcia

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 18 Marc Pubill
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 21 C. Romero
  5. 14 Marcos Llorente
  6. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  7. 23 M. Hjulmand
  8. 10 Álex Baena
  9. 20 G. Simeone
  10. 11 A. Lookman
  11. 7 Lee Kang-In

Bench: J. Musso, O. Vargas, Rodrigo Mendoza, J. Cardoso, Koke, J. David, Arnau Ortiz, Robin Le Normand, Salvador Esquivel, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, Javier Gil

Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Real Sociedad 0 · draws 4 · Atletico Madrid 5.

Real SociedadDrawsAtletico Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Atletico Madrid2-2Real SociedadCopa del Rey
2026-03-07Atletico Madrid3-2Real SociedadLa Liga
2026-01-04Real Sociedad1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2025-05-10Atletico Madrid4-0Real SociedadLa Liga
2024-10-06Real Sociedad1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-05-25Real Sociedad0-2Atletico MadridLa Liga
2023-10-08Atletico Madrid2-1Real SociedadLa Liga
2023-08-03Atletico Madrid0-0Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs
2023-05-28Atletico Madrid2-1Real SociedadLa Liga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match