Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna preview
Real Sociedad has a 52% probability of winning, while Deportivo La Coruna stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals are close, with Real Sociedad at 1.47 and Deportivo La Coruna at 1.45, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score is projected at 63%, and there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals. Recent form shows Real Sociedad with three wins in their last six matches, while Deportivo La Coruna has two wins in the same period. The confidence grade is A, but the close expected goals figures introduce a significant source of doubt.
Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Deportivo La Coruna 7). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market
| Source | Real Sociedad | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 17% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | -22% | +5% | +17% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 2.08 | 1.58 | -0.49 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 4.00 | +0.64 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 3.79 | 5.60 | +1.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 0.99 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 1.27 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Real Sociedad or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win by 2+ | 20% | 5.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Real Sociedad and Deportivo La Coruna recent form
Real Sociedad
3W 1D 2L
Deportivo La Coruna
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Real Sociedad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Deportivo La Coruna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.
Injuries & availability
Real Sociedad
-
A. Odriozola
knee injury
-
H. Fort
injury
-
I. Zubeldia
injury
- O. Oskarsson suspended
Deportivo La Coruna
-
M. Casado
collarbone injury
-
N. Carrillo
ankle injury
-
P. Aubameyang
knee injury
- Z. Eddahchouri wrist injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club — match page 2026-10-10
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page 2026-10-10
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page 2026-10-10
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal 2026-10-10
- Elche vs Celta Vigo 2026-10-11
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page 2026-10-11
- Levante vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Coruna, next: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante: odds and pick