Why this pick: Espanyol vs Elche
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Espanyol 10, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Espanyol vs Elche: model vs market
| Source | Espanyol | Draw | Elche |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Espanyol below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Espanyol vs Elche odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Espanyol, 30 snapshots since 2026-09-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 1.90 | 1.80 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.60 | +0.50 |
| Elche | 3.60 | 4.55 | +0.95 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Espanyol and Elche expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Espanyol / Elche)
- 0.94 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Espanyol / Elche)
- 1.10 / 1.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Espanyol vs Elche score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Espanyol goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Espanyol vs Elche goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Espanyol vs Elche
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Elche | 21% | 4.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Espanyol or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Elche) | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Espanyol win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Espanyol and Elche recent form
Espanyol
2W 1D 3L
Elche
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Espanyol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Elche away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Espanyol at home only, Elche away only.
Injuries & availability
Espanyol absences
-
A. Gorosabel
injury
-
J. Puado
knee injury
-
Jofre
groin injury
-
K. Garcia
hamstring injury
-
O. El Hilali
suspended
Elche absences
-
Y. Santiago
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Espanyol lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 21 Roger Hinojo
- 6 L. Cabrera
- 14 Unai Núñez
- 32 J. A. Lopez
- 4 Urko González
- 8 Edu Expósito
- 15 Bryan Zaragoza
- 28 Javier Hernandez
- 22 Álex Calatrava
- 9 Roberto Fernández
Bench: Ángel Fortuño, Q. Hartman, C. Riedel, Pol Lozano, Pere Milla, V. Drkušić, Marcos Fernández, Gabriel Moscardo, T. Dolan, Rafel Bauzà, Llorenç Serred
Elche lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 M. Dituro
- 3 R. Revivo
- 23 Víctor Chust
- 5 F. Redondo
- 2 Buba Sangaré
- 12 Gonzalo Villar
- 47 J. Morcillo
- 18 T. Lemar
- 11 Germán Valera
- 14 Fer Niño
- 21 L. Cepeda
Bench: Bigas, Marc Aguado, E. Ponce, F. Buonanotte, Alejandro Iturbe, Martim Neto, Josan, G. Diangana, Tete Morente, Rubén Sánchez, A. Osorio, Matia Barzic Gutiérrez
Espanyol vs Elche head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 3 · draws 5 · Elche 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Elche | 2-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-10-25 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2024-04-27 | Elche | 2-2 | Espanyol | Segunda División |
| 2023-11-18 | Espanyol | 2-0 | Elche | Segunda División |
| 2023-02-19 | Elche | 0-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2022-10-23 | Espanyol | 2-2 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2022-01-10 | Espanyol | 1-2 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2021-10-23 | Elche | 2-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2015-04-06 | Espanyol | 1-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2014-11-02 | Elche | 2-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-09-19
- Athletic Club vs Alaves 2026-09-19
- Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Sevilla v Barcelona — match page 2026-09-19
- Getafe vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-20
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis 2026-09-20
- Villarreal vs Levante 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Espanyol, previous: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction
- Espanyol, next: Malaga vs Espanyol prediction
- Elche, previous: Elche vs Real Madrid prediction
- Elche, next: Elche – Celta Vigo, 2026-10-11