Why this pick: Sevilla vs Barcelona
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sevilla 10, Barcelona 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sevilla vs Barcelona: model vs market
| Source | Sevilla | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 25% | 56% |
| Market | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Published | 12% | 17% | 71% |
| Edge | +10% | +10% | -20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sevilla vs Barcelona odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 8.38 | 9.88 | +1.50 |
| Draw | 5.21 | 6.65 | +1.45 |
| Barcelona | 1.36 | 1.25 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sevilla and Barcelona expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Sevilla / Barcelona)
- 0.80 / 2.16
- Defence rating (Sevilla / Barcelona)
- 0.84 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sevilla vs Barcelona score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sevilla vs Barcelona goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sevilla vs Barcelona
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 12% | 8.25 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.92 | |
| Barcelona | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sevilla or draw) | 29% | 3.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Barcelona) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sevilla and Barcelona recent form
Sevilla
4W 1D 1L
Barcelona
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sevilla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barcelona away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 4.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Sevilla at home only, Barcelona away only.
Injuries & availability
Sevilla absences
-
L. Stassin
muscle injury
-
R. Vargas
knee injury
Barcelona absences
-
F. de Jong
knee injury
-
J. Garcia
knee injury
-
R. Bardghji
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Sevilla lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 17 G. Suazo
- 5 Andrés Castrín
- 12 A. Sangante
- 2 Juan Iglesias
- 8 G. Kochorashvili
- 6 L. Agoumé
- 20 Félix Correia
- 24 Y. Fofana
- 30 M. Sierra
- 9 R. Ure
Bench: Julio Díaz del Romo, Alfon González, Peque Fernández, Fran González, Manu Bueno, Isaac, Jon Guridi, C. Ejuke, José Ángel Carmona, Marcão, N. Guillen
Barcelona lineup · 4-3-3
- 25 D. Livaković
- 2 João Cancelo
- 15 A. Christensen
- 5 Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 24 Eric García
- 8 Pedri
- 16 Rodri
- 7 Fermín
- 17 A. Gordon
- 11 Raphinha
- 10 Lamine Yamal
Bench: Alejandro Balde, Gavi, Gabriel Jesus, X. Espart, W. Szczęsny, K. Adeyemi, Gerard Martín, Dani Olmo, Marc Bernal, J. Koundé, H. Abdelkarim, I. Rodriguez
Sevilla vs Barcelona head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sevilla 1 · draws 1 · Barcelona 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Barcelona | 5-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-10-05 | Sevilla | 4-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2025-02-09 | Sevilla | 1-4 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2024-10-20 | Barcelona | 5-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-05-26 | Sevilla | 1-2 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2023-09-29 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-02-05 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2022-09-03 | Sevilla | 0-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2022-04-03 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2021-12-21 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Espanyol v Elche — match page 2026-09-18
- Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-09-19
- Athletic Club vs Alaves 2026-09-19
- Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Getafe vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-20
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis 2026-09-20
- Villarreal vs Levante 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Sevilla, previous: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla: odds and pick
- Sevilla, next: Levante vs Sevilla: odds and pick
- Barcelona, previous: Barcelona – Racing Santander, 2026-09-16
- Barcelona, next: Barcelona v Getafe analysis