Updated

La Liga · Matchday 7

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid· Referee Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Full time2 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Real Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico MadridDrawReal Madrid

Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Atletico MadridReal Madrid
1.93 xG per 90 2.71
1.77 npxG per 90 2.55
11.6 PPDA 12.7
10.2 Deep completions per 90 13.4
1.50 xPTS per 90 2.43

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico MadridDrawReal Madrid
Model36%24%40%
Market27%25%48%
Published29%25%46%
Edge+9%-1%-8%
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-14.

Opened 1.86Now 2.01 +0.15
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Madrid3.743.50-0.24
Draw3.853.80-0.05
Real Madrid1.862.01+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Atletico Madrid
1.96Real Madrid
Total expected goals
3.74
Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Real Madrid)
1.30 / 1.64
Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Real Madrid)
1.04 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 2.7% 4.2% 2.7% 2.1% 1 2.5% 9.6% 7.8% 5.1% 3.9% 2 3.8% 7.4% 7.3% 4.8% 3.6% 3 2.4% 4.6% 4.5% 3.0% 2.3% 4+ 1.7% 3.3% 3.3% 2.1% 1.6%

Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Madrid29%3.39
Draw25%4.01
Real Madrid46%2.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.36
Under 2.526%3.78
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.88
Double chance1X (Atletico Madrid or draw)54%1.84
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Real Madrid)71%1.42
Handicap -1Real Madrid win by 2+23%4.43
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid recent form

Atletico Madrid 3W 1D 2L
Real Madrid 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Madrid at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Madrid at home only, Real Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Atletico Madrid absences

  • A. Sorloth muscle injury
  • P. Barrios muscle injury

Real Madrid absences

  • Eder Militao hamstring injury
  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • Rodrygo knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Atletico Madrid lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 13 J. Oblak
  2. 22 Álex Grimaldo
  3. 17 D. Hancko
  4. 21 C. Romero
  5. 18 Marc Pubill
  6. 10 Álex Baena
  7. 5 J. Cardoso
  8. 14 Marcos Llorente
  9. 20 G. Simeone
  10. 15 J. David
  11. 7 Lee Kang-In

Bench: J. Musso, O. Vargas, Rodrigo Mendoza, Koke, A. Lookman, Arnau Ortiz, J. Álvarez, M. Hjulmand, Robin Le Normand, J. Dominguez, Dani Martínez, J. Castillo

Real Madrid lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 T. Courtois
  2. 17 Marc Cucurella
  3. 4 D. Huijsen
  4. 16 I. Konaté
  5. 24 D. Dumfries
  6. 14 A. Tchouaméni
  7. 8 F. Valverde
  8. 7 Vinícius Júnior
  9. 5 J. Bellingham
  10. 15 A. Güler
  11. 10 Kylian Mbappé

Bench: Raúl Asencio, E. Camavinga, Endrick, T. Alexander-Arnold, A. Lunin, Álvaro Fernández, Carlos Espí, Bernardo Silva, Brahim Díaz, A. Rüdiger, Y. Diomande, Thiago Pitarch

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico Madrid 3 · draws 3 · Real Madrid 4.

Atletico MadridDrawsReal Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Real Madrid3-2Atletico MadridLa Liga
2026-01-08Atletico Madrid1-2Real MadridSuper Cup
2025-09-27Atletico Madrid5-2Real MadridLa Liga
2025-03-12Atletico Madrid1-0Real MadridUEFA Champions League
2025-03-04Real Madrid2-1Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
2025-02-08Real Madrid1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-09-29Atletico Madrid1-1Real MadridLa Liga
2024-02-04Real Madrid1-1Atletico MadridLa Liga
2024-01-18Atletico Madrid4-2Real MadridCopa del Rey
2024-01-10Real Madrid5-3Atletico MadridSuper Cup

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match