Racing Santander VS Valencia Football Prediction 11/10/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Racing Santander vs Valencia preview

Racing Santander has a 47% probability of winning against Valencia, who sit at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Racing Santander are 2.40, while Valencia's expected goals are significantly lower at 1.35.

Both teams have struggled recently, with Racing Santander recording a form of L-L-W-L-W-L and Valencia on a L-W-L-L-L-L streak. The model indicates a 74% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form raises questions about both teams' ability to perform as expected.

Why this pick: Racing Santander vs Valencia

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Racing Santander 7, Valencia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Racing SantanderValencia

1.40 xG per 90 1.05

1.19 npxG per 90 1.05

12.3 PPDA 15.1

6.4 Deep completions per 90 4.3

1.15 xPTS per 90 1.03

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Racing Santander vs Valencia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Racing Santander	Draw	Valencia
Model	62%	21%	18%
Market	41%	27%	32%
Published	46%	26%	28%
Edge	+21%	-6%	-14%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.35.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Racing Santander below the model: +20.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Racing Santander vs Valencia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Racing Santander, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.83Now 2.33 +0.49

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Racing Santander	1.83	2.33	+0.49
Draw	3.72	3.50	-0.22
Valencia	4.30	2.98	-1.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Racing Santander and Valencia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.40Racing Santander

1.35Valencia

Total expected goals: 3.75
Attack rating (Racing Santander / Valencia): 1.26 / 0.86
Defence rating (Racing Santander / Valencia): 1.36 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Racing Santander vs Valencia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 1.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 1 3.8% 8.5% 4.8% 2.1% 1.0% 2 6.6% 8.9% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 3 5.6% 7.5% 5.1% 2.3% 1.0% 4+ 6.4% 8.6% 5.8% 2.6% 1.2%

Rows: Racing Santander goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Racing Santander vs Valencia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Racing Santander vs Valencia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Racing Santander	46%	2.17
	Draw	26%	3.91
	Valencia	28%	3.53
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.35
	Under 2.5	26%	3.88
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.28
Double chance	1X (Racing Santander or draw)	72%	1.40
	12 (either side)	74%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Valencia)	54%	1.85
Handicap -1	Racing Santander win by 2+	42%	2.38
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Racing Santander and Valencia recent form

Racing Santander 2W 0D 4L

Valencia 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Racing Santander at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-0
Win rate: 67%
Goals for / match: 2.33
Goals against / match: 1.67
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

Valencia away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.33
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.3 goals per match.
They average 0.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Racing Santander at home only, Valencia away only.