Why this pick: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market
| Source | Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | +11% | -2% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.32.
- The market prices Osasuna below the model: +10.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 2.08 | 2.55 | +0.46 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.30 | +0.07 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 3.73 | 2.80 | -0.93 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Osasuna / Rayo Vallecano)
- 1.00 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Osasuna / Rayo Vallecano)
- 1.17 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Osasuna or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Osasuna win by 2+ | 28% | 3.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano recent form
Osasuna
2W 1D 3L
Rayo Vallecano
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Osasuna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rayo Vallecano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.
Injuries & availability
Osasuna absences
-
A. Oroz
muscle injury
-
J. Herrando
muscle injury
-
M. Gomez
hamstring injury
-
V. Rosier
hamstring injury
Rayo Vallecano absences
-
A. Batalla
broken calfbone
-
I. Palazon
muscle injury
-
J. Vertrouwd
muscle injury
-
Luiz Felipe
hamstring injury
-
R. Nteka
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Osasuna lineup · 4-5-1
- 13 Aitor Fernández
- 15 Diego Rico
- 35 U. Santos
- 24 Catena
- 27 Íñigo Arguibide
- 11 Kike Barja
- 29 Asier Osambela
- 8 Iker Muñoz
- 7 Moncayola
- 14 Rubén García
- 17 A. Budimir
Bench: Sergio Herrera, Lucas Torró, Raúl García, Raul Moro, R. Del Castillo, Jonathan Dubasin, F. Boyomo, Abel Bretones, Mauro Echegoyen, Asier Bonel, Rafa Fernández, R. Yeboah
Rayo Vallecano lineup · 4-3-3
- 25 E. Audero
- 17 Adrià Pedrosa
- 24 F. Lejeune
- 15 Mujaid Sadick
- 2 A. Rațiu
- 8 Unai López
- 6 P. Ciss
- 23 Óscar Valentín
- 18 Álvaro García
- 10 Sergio Camello
- 19 Jorge de Frutos
Bench: Dani Cárdenas, M. Kumbulla, Pedro Díaz, Alemão, G. Tsitaishvili, I. Balliu, Fran Pérez, Pelayo Fernández, Marco de las Sías, G. Bouare, Rayane Belid
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Osasuna 6 · draws 1 · Rayo Vallecano 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-3 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-09-14 | Osasuna | 2-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2025-01-19 | Osasuna | 1-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2024-09-16 | Rayo Vallecano | 3-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-04-20 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-12-15 | Osasuna | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2023-04-14 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2022-09-04 | Osasuna | 2-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2022-02-12 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-3 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2021-10-02 | Osasuna | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Espanyol v Elche — match page 2026-09-18
- Athletic Club vs Alaves 2026-09-19
- Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Sevilla v Barcelona — match page 2026-09-19
- Getafe vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-20
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis 2026-09-20
- Villarreal vs Levante 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Osasuna, previous: Atletico Madrid – Osasuna, 2026-09-16
- Osasuna, next: Real Betis vs Osasuna prediction
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol prediction
- Rayo Vallecano, next: Getafe – Rayo Vallecano, 2026-10-19