Valencia VS Barcelona Football Prediction 06/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Valencia vs Barcelona

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Barcelona 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ValenciaBarcelona

1.35 xG per 90 2.13

1.27 npxG per 90 1.98

14.0 PPDA 7.6

4.7 Deep completions per 90 10.2

1.37 xPTS per 90 2.00

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Valencia vs Barcelona: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Valencia	Draw	Barcelona
Model	31%	29%	41%
Market	10%	16%	74%
Published	15%	19%	66%
Edge	+21%	+13%	-34%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Valencia vs Barcelona odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.47Now 1.29 -0.18

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Valencia	6.01	9.70	+3.69
Draw	4.75	6.10	+1.35
Barcelona	1.47	1.29	-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Valencia and Barcelona expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33Valencia

1.61Barcelona

Total expected goals: 2.94
Attack rating (Valencia / Barcelona): 1.00 / 1.51
Defence rating (Valencia / Barcelona): 0.95 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Valencia vs Barcelona score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 5.8% 6.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1 4.7% 13.4% 9.0% 4.8% 2.8% 2 4.8% 7.7% 6.2% 3.4% 1.9% 3 2.2% 3.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.9% 4+ 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Barcelona goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Valencia vs Barcelona goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 62%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Valencia vs Barcelona

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Valencia	15%	6.61
	Draw	19%	5.28
	Barcelona	66%	1.52
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73
	Under 2.5	42%	2.37
Both teams to score	Yes	62%	1.60
	No	38%	2.66
Double chance	1X (Valencia or draw)	34%	2.93
	12 (either side)	81%	1.23
	X2 (draw or Barcelona)	85%	1.18
Handicap -1	Barcelona win by 2+	22%	4.60
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Valencia and Barcelona recent form

Valencia 2W 2D 2L

Barcelona 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Valencia at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

Barcelona away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 5.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Barcelona away only.

Injuries & availability

Valencia absences

D. Foulquier injury
D. Lopez knee injury
G. Rodriguez muscle injury
J. Copete ankle injury
J. De Haas ankle injury
L. Rioja injury
S. Canos knee injury
U. Sadiq muscle injury

Barcelona absences

F. de Jong knee injury
J. Bisiwu ankle injury
R. Bardghji knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Valencia vs Barcelona head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Valencia 1 · draws 1 · Barcelona 8.

10% 10% 80%

ValenciaDrawsBarcelona

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-23	Valencia	3-1	Barcelona	La Liga
2025-09-14	Barcelona	6-0	Valencia	La Liga
2025-02-06	Valencia	0-5	Barcelona	Copa del Rey
2025-01-26	Barcelona	7-1	Valencia	La Liga
2024-08-17	Valencia	1-2	Barcelona	La Liga
2024-04-29	Barcelona	4-2	Valencia	La Liga
2023-12-16	Valencia	1-1	Barcelona	La Liga
2023-03-05	Barcelona	1-0	Valencia	La Liga
2022-10-29	Valencia	0-1	Barcelona	La Liga
2022-02-20	Valencia	1-4	Barcelona	La Liga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Getafe vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-07

Before and after this match

Valencia, previous: Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia: odds and pick
Valencia, next: Sevilla – Valencia, 2026-09-11
Barcelona, previous: Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano analysis
Barcelona, next: Levante – Barcelona, 2026-09-13