Why this pick: Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Athletic Club 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Athletic Club | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | +21% | -4% | -17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.36.
- The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +20.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 12 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.80 | 3.04 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.40 | -0.06 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.45 | 2.40 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Athletic Club / Atletico Madrid)
- 1.05 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Athletic Club / Atletico Madrid)
- 1.11 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Atletico Madrid | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Athletic Club or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 32% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid recent form
Athletic Club
1W 1D 4L
Atletico Madrid
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Athletic Club at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Atletico Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Athletic Club at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.
Injuries & availability
Athletic Club absences
-
A. Djalo
coach's decision
-
D. Vivian
hamstring injury
-
N. Serrano
coach's decision
-
P. Canales
muscle injury
-
U. Egiluz
knee injury
Atletico Madrid absences
-
A. Sorloth
muscle injury
-
O. Vargas
coach's decision
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Athletic Club 4 · draws 0 · Atletico Madrid 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Atletico Madrid | 3-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-03-01 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-04-27 | Atletico Madrid | 3-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-02-29 | Athletic Club | 3-0 | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| 2024-02-07 | Atletico Madrid | 0-1 | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| 2023-12-16 | Athletic Club | 2-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-02-19 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2022-10-15 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
- Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
- Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Athletic Club, previous: Celta Vigo – Athletic Club, 2026-08-30
- Athletic Club, next: Athletic Club vs Elche: odds and pick
- Atletico Madrid, next: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction