Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Racing Santander 3). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander: model vs market
| Source | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -13% | -2% | +15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 2.15 | 2.01 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.58 | +0.16 |
| Racing Santander | 3.30 | 3.81 | +0.51 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Racing Santander)
- 0.98 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Racing Santander)
- 1.16 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Racing Santander | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rayo Vallecano or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Santander) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander recent form
Rayo Vallecano
2W 1D 3L
Racing Santander
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rayo Vallecano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Racing Santander away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano at home only, Racing Santander away only.
Injuries & availability
Rayo Vallecano absences
-
A. Batalla
broken calfbone
-
I. Palazon
muscle injury
-
J. Vertrouwd
muscle injury
-
Luiz Felipe
hamstring injury
-
M. Kumbulla
muscle injury
Racing Santander absences
-
A. Martin
knee injury
-
I. Luque
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 3 · draws 1 · Racing Santander 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-07-20 | Racing Santander | 1-2 | Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| 2019-09-13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-0 | Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 2012-03-03 | Rayo Vallecano | 4-2 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2011-10-01 | Racing Santander | 1-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
- Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
- Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Barcelona v Rayo Vallecano analysis
- Rayo Vallecano, next: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: odds and pick
- Racing Santander, next: Racing Santander v Alaves analysis