Why this pick: Malaga vs Levante
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Malaga 3, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Malaga vs Levante: model vs market
| Source | Malaga | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Published | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Malaga vs Levante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Malaga, 15 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 2.14 | 2.42 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.29 | +0.04 |
| Levante | 3.45 | 3.10 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Malaga and Levante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Malaga / Levante)
- 0.94 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Malaga / Levante)
- 1.03 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malaga vs Levante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malaga vs Levante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malaga vs Levante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Levante | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malaga or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Levante) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malaga win by 2+ | 21% | 4.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Malaga and Levante recent form
Malaga
1W 3D 2L
Levante
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malaga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Levante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Malaga at home only, Levante away only.
Injuries & availability
Malaga absences
-
A. Nino
injury
-
A. Ochoa
knee injury
-
D. Murillo
injury
-
F. Calero
ribs injury
-
J. Lobete
knee injury
-
M. Diarra
calf injury
Levante absences
-
A. Primo
shoulder injury
-
K. Etta Eyong
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Malaga vs Levante head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Malaga 2 · draws 4 · Levante 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Malaga | 1-1 | Levante | Segunda División |
| 2024-11-27 | Levante | 4-2 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2023-03-17 | Malaga | 0-0 | Levante | Segunda División |
| 2022-12-04 | Levante | 1-0 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2018-04-19 | Levante | 1-0 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2017-12-01 | Malaga | 0-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2016-05-02 | Malaga | 3-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2015-12-30 | Levante | 0-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2015-02-07 | Levante | 4-1 | Malaga | La Liga |
| 2014-09-13 | Malaga | 0-0 | Levante | La Liga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
- Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
- Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Malaga, previous: Real Madrid v Malaga analysis
- Malaga, next: Celta Vigo v Malaga analysis
- Levante, next: Levante – Barcelona, 2026-09-13