Why this pick: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Barcelona 10, Rayo Vallecano 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: model vs market
| Source | Barcelona | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Published | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Edge | -16% | +10% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.24 | 1.09 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 5.30 | 11.00 | +5.70 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 8.10 | 23.00 | +14.90 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Barcelona / Rayo Vallecano)
- 1.54 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Barcelona / Rayo Vallecano)
- 0.85 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Rayo Vallecano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 83% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 11% | 9.00 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | 6% | 17.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barcelona or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| X2 (draw or Rayo Vallecano) | 17% | 5.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win by 2+ | 51% | 1.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano recent form
Barcelona
4W 0D 2L
Rayo Vallecano
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barcelona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Rayo Vallecano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona at home only, Rayo Vallecano away only.
Injuries & availability
Barcelona absences
-
D. Livakovic
inactive
-
F. de Jong
knee injury
-
Gavi
knee injury
-
M. Casado
coach's decision
-
R. Bardghji
knee injury
Rayo Vallecano absences
-
A. Batalla
injury
-
I. Palazon
injury
-
Luiz Felipe
hamstring injury
-
M. Kumbulla
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Barcelona 4 · draws 3 · Rayo Vallecano 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2025-08-31 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2025-02-17 | Barcelona | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2024-08-27 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-2 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2024-05-19 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2023-11-25 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2023-04-26 | Rayo Vallecano | 2-1 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2022-08-13 | Barcelona | 0-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2022-04-24 | Barcelona | 0-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2021-10-27 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Barcelona | La Liga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Real Madrid v Malaga — match page 2026-08-30
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Barcelona, next: Valencia vs Barcelona prediction
- Rayo Vallecano, next: Rayo Vallecano v Racing Santander analysis