Why this pick: Alaves vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Alaves vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Alaves | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| Edge | +6% | -1% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alaves below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Alaves vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alaves, 15 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 2.26 | 2.31 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.12 | +0.02 |
| Osasuna | 3.40 | 3.46 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alaves and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Alaves / Osasuna)
- 1.09 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Alaves / Osasuna)
- 0.84 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alaves vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alaves vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alaves vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 43% | 2.32 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Osasuna | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alaves or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win by 2+ | 26% | 3.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alaves and Osasuna recent form
Alaves
4W 1D 1L
Osasuna
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
Osasuna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Osasuna away only.
Injuries & availability
Alaves absences
-
F. Garces
suspended
-
M. Rodriguez
ankle injury
-
T. Martinez
foot injury
Osasuna absences
-
A. Oroz
muscle injury
-
J. Herrando
injury
-
V. Rosier
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Alaves vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alaves 3 · draws 3 · Osasuna 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Alaves | 2-2 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-12-20 | Osasuna | 3-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2025-05-24 | Alaves | 1-1 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-12-08 | Osasuna | 2-2 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2024-08-10 | Osasuna | 1-2 | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-03-04 | Osasuna | 1-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2023-10-01 | Alaves | 0-2 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-08-04 | Osasuna | 2-3 | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-04-10 | Osasuna | 1-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2022-01-27 | Osasuna | 0-1 | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
- Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
- Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Alaves, next: Racing Santander v Alaves analysis
- Osasuna, previous: Osasuna – Getafe, 2026-08-31
- Osasuna, next: Osasuna vs Espanyol: odds and pick