Deportivo La Coruna VS Valencia Football Prediction 30/08/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Deportivo La Coruna 2, Valencia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Deportivo La CorunaValencia

0.73 xG per 90 1.52

0.73 npxG per 90 1.45

16.8 PPDA 13.1

3.0 Deep completions per 90 4.5

0.70 xPTS per 90 1.52

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Deportivo La Coruna	Draw	Valencia
Model	53%	29%	18%
Market	36%	31%	32%
Published	41%	31%	29%
Edge	+16%	-2%	-15%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.86.
The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Coruna, 16 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 2.73Now 2.60 -0.13

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Deportivo La Coruna	2.73	2.60	-0.13
Draw	3.15	3.04	-0.10
Valencia	2.75	2.92	+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo La Coruna and Valencia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Deportivo La Coruna

0.86Valencia

Total expected goals: 2.41
Attack rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Valencia): 1.05 / 1.03
Defence rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Valencia): 0.75 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 4.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1 11.2% 14.0% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.9% 9.5% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 5.9% 5.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 3.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Deportivo La Coruna	41%	2.47
	Draw	31%	3.25
	Valencia	29%	3.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.21
	Under 2.5	55%	1.83
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Deportivo La Coruna or draw)	71%	1.40
	12 (either side)	69%	1.44
	X2 (draw or Valencia)	59%	1.68
Handicap -1	Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+	30%	3.37
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—