Why this pick: Espanyol vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Espanyol 10, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Espanyol vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Espanyol | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Espanyol vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Espanyol, 15 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 2.38 | 2.29 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.29 | +0.14 |
| Sevilla | 3.17 | 3.40 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Espanyol and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Espanyol / Sevilla)
- 0.91 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Espanyol / Sevilla)
- 1.22 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Espanyol vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Espanyol goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Espanyol vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Espanyol vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Sevilla | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Espanyol or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Espanyol win by 2+ | 23% | 4.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Espanyol and Sevilla recent form
Espanyol
3W 1D 2L
Sevilla
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Espanyol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Espanyol at home only, Sevilla away only.
Injuries & availability
Espanyol absences
-
B. Zaragoza
knee injury
-
J. Puado
knee injury
-
K. Garcia
hamstring injury
Sevilla absences
-
Marcao
foot injury
-
R. Vargas
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Espanyol vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 1 · draws 3 · Sevilla 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Sevilla | 2-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-11-24 | Espanyol | 2-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-01-25 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2024-10-25 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-05-04 | Sevilla | 3-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2022-09-10 | Espanyol | 2-3 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2022-02-20 | Espanyol | 1-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2021-09-25 | Sevilla | 2-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2020-02-16 | Sevilla | 2-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2019-08-18 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
- Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
- Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
- Getafe vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-07
Before and after this match
- Espanyol, next: Osasuna vs Espanyol: odds and pick
- Sevilla, next: Sevilla – Valencia, 2026-09-11