Why this pick: Getafe vs Celta Vigo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Celta Vigo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Celta Vigo: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| Market | 37% | 34% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Edge | +20% | -7% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Getafe below the model: +19.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Getafe vs Celta Vigo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Getafe, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.66 | 2.55 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 2.87 | 2.80 | -0.07 |
| Celta Vigo | 3.02 | 3.30 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Celta Vigo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.60
- Attack rating (Getafe / Celta Vigo)
- 0.85 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Getafe / Celta Vigo)
- 1.02 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Celta Vigo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Celta Vigo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Celta Vigo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Celta Vigo | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.96 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta Vigo) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Getafe win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Getafe and Celta Vigo recent form
Getafe
3W 0D 3L
Celta Vigo
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Celta Vigo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Celta Vigo away only.
Injuries & availability
Getafe absences
-
A. Abqar
injury
-
C. Uche
knee injury
-
Francho
injury
-
Juanmi
injury
Celta Vigo absences
-
A. Febas
ribs injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Getafe vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Getafe 4 · draws 3 · Celta Vigo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Getafe | 0-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2025-08-17 | Celta Vigo | 0-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-05-24 | Getafe | 1-2 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2024-11-04 | Celta Vigo | 1-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-02-11 | Getafe | 3-2 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2023-10-08 | Celta Vigo | 2-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2023-05-03 | Getafe | 1-0 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| 2022-10-24 | Celta Vigo | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2022-04-20 | Celta Vigo | 0-2 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2021-10-25 | Getafe | 0-3 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
- Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
- Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
- Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Osasuna – Getafe, 2026-08-31
- Getafe, next: Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction
- Celta Vigo, previous: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo: odds and pick
- Celta Vigo, next: Celta Vigo v Malaga analysis