Why this pick: Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Deportivo La Coruna 5, Sevilla 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo La Coruna | Draw | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 27% | 13% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Edge | +24% | -5% | -19% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.76.
- The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below the model: +23.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo La Coruna, 21 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 2.43 | 2.62 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 3.31 | 3.08 | -0.23 |
| Sevilla | 3.31 | 3.00 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.49
- Attack rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Sevilla)
- 1.19 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Deportivo La Coruna / Sevilla)
- 0.82 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Columns: Sevilla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Coruna | 43% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Sevilla | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo La Coruna or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Sevilla) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Coruna win by 2+ | 37% | 2.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Deportivo La Coruna and Sevilla recent form
Deportivo La Coruna
2W 3D 1L
Sevilla
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo La Coruna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sevilla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna at home only, Sevilla away only.
Injuries & availability
Deportivo La Coruna absences
-
N. Carrillo
ankle injury
-
T. Gijselhart
transfer negotiations
Sevilla absences
-
A. Sangante
ankle injury
-
R. Vargas
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Deportivo La Coruna 0 · draws 3 · Sevilla 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2017-12-02 | Sevilla | 2-0 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2017-04-08 | Sevilla | 4-2 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2016-11-19 | Deportivo La Coruna | 2-3 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2016-04-17 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2015-12-05 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2015-03-07 | Deportivo La Coruna | 3-4 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2014-10-05 | Sevilla | 4-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2013-02-15 | Sevilla | 3-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2012-09-24 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-15
- Alaves vs Valencia 2026-09-15
- Elche v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-15
- Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-16
- Barcelona vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-16
- Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-09-17
- Malaga v Villarreal — match page 2026-09-17
Before and after this match
- Deportivo La Coruna, previous: Getafe vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction
- Deportivo La Coruna, next: Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis prediction
- Sevilla, previous: Sevilla – Valencia, 2026-09-11
- Sevilla, next: Sevilla vs Barcelona prediction