Why this pick: Elche vs Real Sociedad
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Elche 10, Real Sociedad 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Elche vs Real Sociedad: model vs market
| Source | Elche | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +17% | -1% | -16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Elche vs Real Sociedad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 2.62 | 3.35 | +0.73 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.50 | +0.15 |
| Real Sociedad | 2.60 | 2.15 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Elche and Real Sociedad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Elche / Real Sociedad)
- 0.92 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Elche / Real Sociedad)
- 1.21 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Elche vs Real Sociedad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Elche goals. Columns: Real Sociedad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Elche vs Real Sociedad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Elche vs Real Sociedad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 33% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Real Sociedad | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Elche or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Sociedad) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win by 2+ | 14% | 7.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Elche and Real Sociedad recent form
Elche
1W 2D 3L
Real Sociedad
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Elche at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 5.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Real Sociedad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Elche at home only, Real Sociedad away only.
Injuries & availability
Elche absences
-
Y. Santiago
knee injury
Real Sociedad absences
-
A. Odriozola
knee injury
-
P. Marin
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Elche vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Elche 1 · draws 1 · Real Sociedad 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Real Sociedad | 3-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2025-11-07 | Elche | 1-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2023-03-19 | Real Sociedad | 2-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2022-08-27 | Elche | 0-1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2022-04-10 | Elche | 1-2 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2021-09-26 | Real Sociedad | 1-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2021-05-07 | Real Sociedad | 2-0 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2020-09-26 | Elche | 0-3 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2015-04-20 | Elche | 1-0 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 2014-11-28 | Real Sociedad | 3-0 | Elche | La Liga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Real Betis v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-04
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid 2026-09-05
- Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander 2026-09-05
- Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-09-05
- Valencia vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-09-06
- Malaga vs Levante 2026-09-06
- Alaves v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-06
- Espanyol vs Sevilla — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Elche, next: Athletic Club vs Elche: odds and pick
- Real Sociedad, previous: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo: odds and pick
- Real Sociedad, next: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction