Why this pick: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atletico Madrid 10, Osasuna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Published | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Edge | -30% | +9% | +21% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 21 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.67 | 1.40 | -0.27 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 4.80 | +1.00 |
| Osasuna | 5.57 | 8.50 | +2.93 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Madrid and Osasuna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Atletico Madrid / Osasuna)
- 1.04 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Atletico Madrid / Osasuna)
- 1.13 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals. Columns: Osasuna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.48 | |
| Osasuna | 17% | 6.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Madrid or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Osasuna) | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 20% | 4.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atletico Madrid and Osasuna recent form
Atletico Madrid
3W 1D 2L
Osasuna
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Madrid at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Osasuna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Madrid at home only, Osasuna away only.
Injuries & availability
Atletico Madrid absences
-
A. Sorloth
muscle injury
-
J. Alvarez
muscle injury
-
P. Barrios
muscle injury
Osasuna absences
-
A. Oroz
muscle injury
-
J. Herrando
muscle injury
-
M. Gomez
hamstring injury
-
V. Rosier
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Madrid 8 · draws 0 · Osasuna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Osasuna | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-10-18 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-05-15 | Osasuna | 2-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-01-12 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2024-05-19 | Atletico Madrid | 1-4 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-09-28 | Osasuna | 0-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-05-21 | Atletico Madrid | 3-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-01-29 | Osasuna | 0-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2022-02-19 | Osasuna | 0-3 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2021-11-20 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-03
- Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-15
- Alaves vs Valencia 2026-09-15
- Elche v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-15
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla 2026-09-16
- Barcelona vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-16
- Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-09-17
- Malaga v Villarreal — match page 2026-09-17
Before and after this match
- Atletico Madrid, previous: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid prediction
- Atletico Madrid, next: Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid analysis
- Osasuna, previous: Osasuna vs Espanyol: odds and pick
- Osasuna, next: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: odds and pick