Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Espanyol 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol: model vs market
| Source | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Rayo Vallecano below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 32 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 2.18 | 2.32 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| Espanyol | 3.70 | 3.10 | -0.60 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Espanyol)
- 0.95 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Espanyol)
- 1.16 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Espanyol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Espanyol | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rayo Vallecano or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Espanyol) | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rayo Vallecano and Espanyol recent form
Rayo Vallecano
1W 1D 4L
Espanyol
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rayo Vallecano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Espanyol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano at home only, Espanyol away only.
Injuries & availability
Rayo Vallecano absences
-
A. Batalla
broken calfbone
-
I. Palazon
muscle injury
-
J. Vertrouwd
muscle injury
-
J. de Frutos
suspended
-
Luiz Felipe
hamstring injury
-
R. Nteka
muscle injury
Espanyol absences
-
A. Gorosabel
injury
-
J. Puado
knee injury
-
Jofre
groin injury
-
K. Garcia
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 6 · draws 0 · Espanyol 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2025-12-07 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2025-04-04 | Rayo Vallecano | 0-4 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2024-08-31 | Espanyol | 2-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2023-05-21 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2022-08-19 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2022-04-21 | Espanyol | 0-1 | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| 2021-12-05 | Rayo Vallecano | 1-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2021-07-24 | Espanyol | 0-2 | Rayo Vallecano | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-01-31 | Espanyol | 2-3 | Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-03
- Alaves vs Valencia 2026-09-15
- Elche v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-15
- Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-16
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla 2026-09-16
- Barcelona vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-16
- Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-09-17
- Malaga v Villarreal — match page 2026-09-17
Before and after this match
- Rayo Vallecano, previous: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: odds and pick
- Rayo Vallecano, next: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: odds and pick
- Espanyol, previous: Osasuna vs Espanyol: odds and pick
- Espanyol, next: Espanyol – Elche, 2026-09-18