Updated

La Liga · Matchday 6

Elche vs Real Madrid

· Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche· Referee J. Manzano

Full time2 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Real Madrid to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ElcheDrawReal Madrid

Why this pick: Elche vs Real Madrid

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Elche 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ElcheReal Madrid
1.28 xG per 90 2.39
1.13 npxG per 90 2.22
10.7 PPDA 13.6
4.2 Deep completions per 90 11.7
1.17 xPTS per 90 2.18

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Elche vs Real Madrid: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceElcheDrawReal Madrid
Model22%23%54%
Market7%13%80%
Published11%15%74%
Edge+15%+11%-25%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Elche vs Real Madrid odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 32 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.32Now 1.20 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Elche11.6013.25+1.65
Draw5.837.50+1.67
Real Madrid1.321.20-0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Elche and Real Madrid expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Elche
2.24Real Madrid
Total expected goals
3.59
Attack rating (Elche / Real Madrid)
0.99 / 1.57
Defence rating (Elche / Real Madrid)
1.25 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Elche vs Real Madrid score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 4.1% 6.5% 4.8% 4.6% 1 2.0% 9.8% 9.2% 6.9% 6.5% 2 2.6% 5.8% 6.5% 4.9% 4.6% 3 1.2% 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 4+ 0.6% 1.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0%

Rows: Elche goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Elche vs Real Madrid goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Elche vs Real Madrid

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Elche11%9.12
Draw15%6.48
Real Madrid74%1.36
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.42
Under 2.529%3.41
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.26
Double chance1X (Elche or draw)26%3.79
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Real Madrid)89%1.12
Handicap -1Real Madrid win by 2+35%2.87
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Elche and Real Madrid recent form

Elche 0W 3D 3L
Real Madrid 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Elche at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Real Madrid away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Elche at home only, Real Madrid away only.

Injuries & availability

Elche absences

  • Y. Santiago knee injury

Real Madrid absences

  • Eder Militao hamstring injury
  • F. Mendy hip injury
  • Rodrygo knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Elche vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Elche 0 · draws 3 · Real Madrid 7.

ElcheDrawsReal Madrid
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Real Madrid4-1ElcheLa Liga
2025-11-23Elche2-2Real MadridLa Liga
2023-02-15Real Madrid4-0ElcheLa Liga
2022-10-19Elche0-3Real MadridLa Liga
2022-01-23Real Madrid2-2ElcheLa Liga
2022-01-20Elche1-2Real MadridCopa del Rey
2021-10-30Elche1-2Real MadridLa Liga
2021-03-13Real Madrid2-1ElcheLa Liga
2020-12-30Elche1-1Real MadridLa Liga
2015-02-22Elche0-2Real MadridLa Liga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match