Real Sociedad VS Celta Vigo Football Prediction 03/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Real Sociedad 10, Celta Vigo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Real SociedadCelta Vigo

1.47 xG per 90 1.06

1.25 npxG per 90 0.98

10.6 PPDA 14.5

5.2 Deep completions per 90 5.7

1.15 xPTS per 90 0.89

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Real Sociedad	Draw	Celta Vigo
Model	65%	21%	14%
Market	51%	26%	23%
Published	54%	25%	21%
Edge	+14%	-6%	-8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.16.
The market prices Real Sociedad below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Sociedad, 9 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.16Now 1.87 -0.29

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Real Sociedad	2.16	1.87	-0.29
Draw	3.30	3.62	+0.33
Celta Vigo	3.30	4.18	+0.88

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.36Real Sociedad

1.16Celta Vigo

Total expected goals: 3.52
Attack rating (Real Sociedad / Celta Vigo): 1.12 / 0.80
Defence rating (Real Sociedad / Celta Vigo): 1.29 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 1.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 1 5.0% 9.1% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 2 8.1% 9.4% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 3 6.7% 7.7% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 4+ 7.5% 8.7% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7%

Rows: Real Sociedad goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 70%

Over 3.5 49%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Real Sociedad	54%	1.84
	Draw	25%	4.02
	Celta Vigo	21%	4.82
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70%	1.42
	Under 2.5	30%	3.38
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.55
	No	36%	2.80
Double chance	1X (Real Sociedad or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Celta Vigo)	46%	2.19
Handicap -1	Real Sociedad win by 2+	45%	2.24
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Real Sociedad and Celta Vigo recent form

Real Sociedad 1W 2D 3L

Celta Vigo 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Real Sociedad at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Celta Vigo away

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Real Sociedad at home only, Celta Vigo away only.

Injuries & availability

Real Sociedad absences

A. Odriozola knee injury
P. Marin injury

Celta Vigo absences

A. Febas ribs injury
B. Iglesias muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Real Sociedad 5 · draws 3 · Celta Vigo 2.

50% 30% 20%

Real SociedadDrawsCelta Vigo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-25	Real Sociedad	3-1	Celta Vigo	La Liga
2025-10-19	Celta Vigo	1-1	Real Sociedad	La Liga
2025-05-13	Real Sociedad	0-1	Celta Vigo	La Liga
2024-12-21	Celta Vigo	2-0	Real Sociedad	La Liga
2024-01-23	Celta Vigo	1-2	Real Sociedad	Copa del Rey
2024-01-20	Celta Vigo	0-1	Real Sociedad	La Liga
2023-08-19	Real Sociedad	1-1	Celta Vigo	La Liga
2023-02-18	Real Sociedad	1-1	Celta Vigo	La Liga
2022-10-16	Celta Vigo	1-2	Real Sociedad	La Liga
2022-01-08	Real Sociedad	1-0	Celta Vigo	La Liga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-15
Alaves vs Valencia 2026-09-15
Elche v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-15
Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-16
Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla 2026-09-16
Barcelona vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-16
Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-09-17
Malaga v Villarreal — match page 2026-09-17

Before and after this match

Real Sociedad, next: Elche – Real Sociedad, 2026-09-07
Celta Vigo, previous: Celta Vigo – Athletic Club, 2026-08-30
Celta Vigo, next: Getafe vs Celta Vigo prediction