Why this pick: Barcelona vs Racing Santander
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Barcelona 10, Racing Santander 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Barcelona vs Racing Santander: model vs market
| Source | Barcelona | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 15% | 13% |
| Market | 90% | 6% | 4% |
| Published | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| Edge | -17% | +8% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.28 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Barcelona vs Racing Santander odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Barcelona, 21 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.13 | 1.07 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 11.10 | 15.00 | +3.90 |
| Racing Santander | 24.00 | 26.71 | +2.71 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Barcelona and Racing Santander expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.82
- Attack rating (Barcelona / Racing Santander)
- 1.86 / 1.52
- Defence rating (Barcelona / Racing Santander)
- 0.88 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barcelona vs Racing Santander score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barcelona goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barcelona vs Racing Santander goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barcelona vs Racing Santander
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 86% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 8% | 11.80 | |
| Racing Santander | 6% | 17.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 87% | 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 13% | 7.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barcelona or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Santander) | 14% | 6.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win by 2+ | 56% | 1.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Barcelona and Racing Santander recent form
Barcelona
6W 0D 0L
Racing Santander
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barcelona at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 4.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Racing Santander away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Barcelona at home only, Racing Santander away only.
Injuries & availability
Barcelona absences
-
F. de Jong
knee injury
-
R. Bardghji
knee injury
Racing Santander absences
-
A. Almeida
suspended
-
A. Martin
knee injury
-
S. Eriksson
shoulder injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Barcelona lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 Joan García
- 2 João Cancelo
- 18 Gerard Martín
- 15 A. Christensen
- 24 Eric García
- 20 Dani Olmo
- 16 Rodri
- 8 Pedri
- 14 K. Adeyemi
- 11 Raphinha
- 10 Lamine Yamal
Bench: Alejandro Balde, Pau Cubarsí Paredes, Gavi, Fermín, Gabriel Jesus, X. Espart, W. Szczęsny, A. Gordon, Marc Bernal, J. Koundé, D. Livaković, H. Abdelkarim
Racing Santander lineup · 4-1-3-2
- 13 Julen Agirrezabala
- 3 Aarón Martín
- 16 Facundo González
- 22 Pedro Felipe
- 4 Manu Hernando
- 18 M. Prati
- 6 Íñigo Sainz-Maza
- 14 M. Gueye
- 20 Sergio Canales
- 9 Juan Carlos Arana
- 12 Asier Villalibre
Bench: Álvaro Mantilla, Pablo Ramón, G. Guliashvili, Iñigo Vicente, Pablo García, Jorge Salinas, Iker Luque, M. Zabiri, Iván Martín, J. Belocian, Laro Gómez
Barcelona vs Racing Santander head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Barcelona 5 · draws 0 · Racing Santander 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | Racing Santander | 0-2 | Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| 2012-03-11 | Racing Santander | 0-2 | Barcelona | La Liga |
| 2011-10-15 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2011-01-22 | Barcelona | 3-0 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2010-08-29 | Racing Santander | 0-3 | Barcelona | La Liga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo 2026-09-03
- Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol — team news & stats 2026-09-15
- Alaves vs Valencia 2026-09-15
- Elche v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-15
- Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — match page 2026-09-16
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla 2026-09-16
- Real Betis vs Getafe — team news & stats 2026-09-17
- Malaga v Villarreal — match page 2026-09-17
Before and after this match
- Barcelona, previous: Levante – Barcelona, 2026-09-13
- Barcelona, next: Sevilla vs Barcelona prediction
- Racing Santander, previous: Racing Santander v Alaves analysis
- Racing Santander, next: Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander: odds and pick