Why this pick: Villarreal vs Levante
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Levante 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Villarreal vs Levante: model vs market
| Source | Villarreal | Draw | Levante |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 19% | 23% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Published | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.70 vs 1.86.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Villarreal vs Levante odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.62 | 1.50 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 4.17 | 4.70 | +0.53 |
| Levante | 5.05 | 5.67 | +0.62 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Villarreal and Levante expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.56
- Attack rating (Villarreal / Levante)
- 1.52 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Villarreal / Levante)
- 1.25 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Villarreal vs Levante score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Levante goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Villarreal vs Levante goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Villarreal vs Levante
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Levante | 18% | 5.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.24 |
| No | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Villarreal or draw) | 82% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Levante) | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 39% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Villarreal and Levante recent form
Villarreal
1W 1D 4L
Levante
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Villarreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levante away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Levante away only.
Injuries & availability
Villarreal absences
-
J. Foyth
achilles tendon injury
-
S. Comesana
injury
Levante absences
-
A. Primo
shoulder injury
-
H. Sotelo
knee injury
-
K. Etta Eyong
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Villarreal lineup · 4-1-2-1-2
- 25 P. Gulácsi
- 23 Sergi Cardona
- 12 Renato Veiga
- 6 Pau Navarro
- 3 A. Freeman
- 24 N. Saliba
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 18 P. Gueye
- 10 Alberto Moleiro
- 22 Ayoze Pérez
- 11 Ilias Akhomach
Bench: Luíz Júnior, Logan Costa, A. Diatta, Gerard Moreno, J. Foyth, G. Mikautadze, Rubén Gómez, S. Mouriño, C. Macia, N. Pépé, Carlos Romero, T. Oluwaseyi
Levante lineup · 4-3-3
- 13 M. Ryan
- 23 Manu Sánchez
- 2 A. Mandi
- 4 Dela
- 22 J. Toljan
- 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti
- 20 Oriol Rey
- 18 E. Bardeli
- 24 T. Fernández
- 9 Iván Romero
- 7 Brugui
Bench: Pablo Cuñat, IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe, Reque, P. Ratkov, Yanis Musuayi, Jorge Cabello, A. Tape, Víctor García, Paco Cortés, Nacho Pérez, M. Santos, M. Usedo Domingo
Villarreal vs Levante head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Villarreal 6 · draws 1 · Levante 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Villarreal | 1-0 | Levante | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-05-02 | Villarreal | 5-1 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2026-02-18 | Levante | 0-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2022-08-03 | Villarreal | 3-1 | Levante | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-04-02 | Levante | 2-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2022-01-03 | Villarreal | 5-0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 2021-07-29 | Villarreal | 0-0 | Levante | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-04-18 | Levante | 1-5 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2021-02-03 | Levante | 1-0 | Villarreal | Copa del Rey |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Espanyol v Elche — match page 2026-09-18
- Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano 2026-09-19
- Athletic Club vs Alaves 2026-09-19
- Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Sevilla v Barcelona — match page 2026-09-19
- Getafe vs Malaga — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — match page 2026-09-20
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Villarreal, previous: Malaga vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Villarreal, next: Real Madrid vs Villarreal: odds and pick
- Levante, previous: Levante – Barcelona, 2026-09-13
- Levante, next: Levante vs Sevilla: odds and pick